Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving, Take 2…

Last week I said:

“This week I will wager that with another UPWARD revision, the claims will be at least 355,000 this week.”

and this week the news is….(from CNBC):

“The number of first-time unemployment applications rose 21,000 last week, the Labor Department said.”

and

“The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000….”

So lets see, 377,000 – 21,000 = 356,000.  I missed on my estimate by 1,000, and AGAIN my estimate is closer to reality, by a FACTOR, than the Government Propagandists!!!  Also, please note that the revision of the previous weeks number was AGAIN AN UPWARD REVISION.  So, they are still trying to pain a more rosy picture than actually exists in the real world!!

This week I will wager that the number is revised UPWARD again to at least 380,000.  Any takers?

Something else I would like to discuss in the CNBC article:

“Applications have trended down over the past few months. The four week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

Please remember that CNBC was more than willing to point out that “things were getting better” on such flimsy evidence as:

“When applications drop below 375,000 — consistently — that generally signals hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate. Prior to last week’s spike, applications had been below 375,000 for three of the past four weeks.”

See how optimistic that is?  However, I seem to have missed ANY MENTION of the fact that for “three of the past four weeks” applications have been ABOVE 375,000, signaling the fact that the unemployment rate is NOT GOING TO IMPROVE!!!

Things that make you go, HMMMMM?

Initial Claims for Unemployment MAY be Improving, Take 2…

WOW!!!

This week I will start out with a report of the Initial Claims for Unemployment for this week (from CNBC):

“Weekly unemployment benefit applications dropped to 352,000, the fewest in nearly four years.”

and (from FoxNews):

“The number of people in the U.S. seeking unemployment benefits plummeted last week to 352,000, the fewest since April 2008.”

352,000!!  That is a GOOD number.  Not great, BUT if we can continue to move in the right direction on this scale, things will BEGIN to improve in the United States of America for the first time since Obama ascended to the Presidency.  I will still not blame the improvement on Him.  In other words it is NOT his fault things may be getting better.  Should not be too difficult for Him to accept this.  He has NOT taken responsibility for anything since He took office………..as a Senator!!!

I am not saying that we have entered the calm seas and the sailing will be easy from here.  We still have to deal with ALL of the people who are unemployed that the Government Propaganda machine does not count, which would push the official unemployment rate above 10%.  We still have to hope that Europe can figure a way out of its mess.  We still have to hope that Iran does not do something stupid.  We still have to deal with ObamaCare and its effects on employment.  We will still have to deal with the rate of inflation and the fact that earnings and interest rates did NOT keep up.  And we have to deal with an Election Year.  Oh wait….scratch that last one…..IF the President and Congress can agree on NOTHING it will be good for US.

Now, for what I said last week:

“Would you want to wager that next week the number is HIGHER than 399,000??”

from FoxNews:

“Weekly applications fell 50,000, the biggest drop in the seasonally adjusted figure in more than six years, the Labor Department said Thursday.”

Lets see, 352,000 + 50,000 = 402,000 claims for last week.  Looks like I win another bet!!  I was off by 3,000 this week, but I said 399,000 to make a point.  I picked that number to imply that the number would be greater than the magic 400,000 number.  So, I would like some artistic slack in the size of my mis-estimation last week.  This week I will wager that with another UPWARD revision, the claims will be at least 355,000 this week.  Any takers??

Initial Claims for Unemployment, the expected Holiday Hangover!!!

Last week I said:

“Hey FoxNews, I will wager that this week’s number will be revised UPWARD to at least 375,000!!! ”

And this week the news is (from CNBC):

“The Labor Department said Thursday that applications jumped by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 399,000, the most in six weeks.”

And (from FoxNews):

“Weekly applications rose by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 399,000, the Labor Department said Thursday”

Let’s see, I have to do some math.  399,000 – 24,000 equals…..carry the one…. 375,000.  OMG, another PERFECT estimate by yours truly.  See, government propagandists statisticians of the NON-Labor Department, it is NOT that difficult!!!  Oh, wait!!  I forgot you guys are trying to make it look better for Dear Leader, and do not care about the TRUTH.  My bad!!  I still say that I could INCREASE the accuracy of your forecasts, for a price that is.

More from FoxNews:

“Applications for weekly unemployment benefits spiked last week, largely because companies let go of thousands of workers after the holiday season.”

As a side note, FoxNews, it is only a “spike” if the next number is lower (closer to 375,000 would be a symmetrical “spike”).  Would you want to wager that next week the number is HIGHER than 399,000??  And remember what I said a month ago:

“Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post??  Well, it goes something like this.  The month is December.  Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity.  Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even?  Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc.  These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list.  I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year.  Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve.  At this point I am a skeptic!!”

Looks like I was correct in being SKEPTICAL!!  This week I will wager that next week this 399,000 number for Initial Claims gets revised, UPWARD AGAIN, to 403,000, which is above the TOXIC 400,000 level!!  Any takers??

Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving continued…

Here is what I said last week about the initial claims for unemployment:

“I will wager that this number gets revised UPWARD again to at least 384,000.”

And this week the adjust is….. (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 387,000 from the previously reported 381,000.”

You see, this “adjustment” is the LARGEST amount, 6,000, since I started pointing out that the Labor Department and the Bureau of “Labor Statistics” (ROFLMAO……sorry I could not help my self) should be renamed the PROPAGANDA Department.  Why would this be the LARGEST adjustment, you ask yourself??  I can think of at least three GOOD reasons why the Government and OBAMA would want this number to appear “better” than it actually is!!!  And do NOT forget that the previous week the “adjustment” was smaller than normal.

1.  To make the American people feel better over the CHRISTMAS Holiday Season

2.  To close out the year 2011 on a less negative outlook, and

3.  The Iowa Caucus was this week.  If President Obama can blunt some of the criticism from the GOP, well that would be a Bonus!!

Call me a cynic.

This week the numbers are (from FoxNews):

“The Labor Department says weekly applications dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000 last week.”

and my favorite quote from FoxNews:

“When applications drop below 375,000 — consistently — they generally signal that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate.”

Hey FoxNews, I will wager that this week’s number will be revised UPWARD to at least 375,000!!!  Do you want to take that bet?? 

Since that would make two weeks in a row that the rate is at least 375,000, does that mean that hiring is NOT strong and we should NOT expect a reduction in the unemployment rate??  Not only that, but last week, the number was WELL ABOVE 375,000!!!  By the way, you still have not answered my question about the 350,000 versus the 375,000 numbers!!  Which is it?

Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving continued…

Is this the first crack in the propaganda???

Here is what I said last week about the initial claims for unemployment:

“I will wager that next week this number will be revised UPWARD to 368,000, NO change.”

And this week the government propagandists “statisticians” say (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 366,000 from the previously reported 364,000.”

Damn, missed by ANOTHER 2,000 claims, this time to the upside.  See how a REAL statistician makes errors to both sides of an estimation.  Some months I ma above the number, some months I am below the number, and some months I am just right.  My error per month is MUCH LOWER than the government propagandists, and my overall error when taken over a longer time period almost disappears.  UNLIKE the government propagandists who have been off TO THE DOWNSIDE (which makes the unemployment numbers “appear” to be better than they are) almost ALL OF THE TIME!!!

Then we get this from FoxNews, who is supposed to be “anti-Obama”:

“But a measure of applications over the past month fell to a three-and-a-half-year low, an indication that hiring could pick up.”

Here’s a question.  IF they are anti-Obama WHY would they even try to be optimistic??  IF someone has a good answer, please share.

This week the “estimation” is :

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000, the Labor Department said.”

I will wager that this number gets revised UPWARD again to at least 384,000.  Any takers??

Happy New Year everyone, let’s hope that the economy gets better, for the American people, in 2012.

Initial Claims for Unemployment MAY be Improving continued…

Last week I said:

“I will wager that next week this number is REVISED UPWARD to 370,000.”

And this week the verdict is…..from CNBC:

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 368,000 from the previously reported 366,000.”

Wow….my largest miss yet, 2,000 to the upside.

The Initial claims from the government propagandists this week is:

“Jobless claims, meanwhile, posted another weekly drop in another sign that the thawing of the labor market is progressing. The fall to 364,000 was the lowest level in more than three years.”

I will wager that next week this number will be revised UPWARD to 368,000, NO change.  Any takers?  And don’t forget that this week is Christmas and next week is New Years, so wouldn’t you think that these numbers should be lower?  I mean, when I owned and ran my own businesses (a small business, like MOST of the businesses in America, that employ the largest number of workers) there is NO way I would have laid someone off during the Holidays.  I would have warned, but there is NO way they would have been unemployed.  Please remember what I said two weeks ago:

“Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post??  Well, it goes something like this.  The month is December.  Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity.  Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even?  Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc.  These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list.  I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year.  Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve.  At this point I am a skeptic!!”

The main point is STILL valid, I will wait till after the New Year to draw conclusions about the labor market.  It may be a few weeks into January before the picture becomes clear.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!  Happy Chanukah!!  Happy Kwanzaa!!  Happy Holidays!!  If I have missed anyone, it is NOT meant as disrespect.

One of the problems with LAWS in the USA…

This morning I was reading an article on FoxNews, about how the Attorney General of California was suing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and I read the following paragraph:

“Harris also called on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to disclose whether they have complied with civil rights laws protecting minorities and members of the Armed Forces against unlawful convictions and foreclosures.”

Here is ONE of the problems that I see with respect to laws in the USA.  Do the Legislators that write these laws even think about what they say??  Do they even consider the Constitution??  Go ahead, read the quote again.

“Harris also called on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to disclose whether they have complied with civil rights laws protecting minorities and members of the Armed Forces against unlawful convictions and foreclosures.”

Here is my question.  What about us middle class white guys??  Do we have a DIFFERENT “Civil Rights” law that protects US from UNLAWFUL convictions and foreclosure?? 

In the Constitution, all men are created EQUAL!!  We ALL have the right to equal protection under the law.  No one is “more equal” than anyone else!!!  WHY is there a law that ONLY protects “minorities” and members of the Armed Forces??  These are the problems with these types of laws, they single out a group of people and “appear” to give them preferential treatment.  In my opinion, ALL of these laws need to be repealed.  Let’s go back to everyone is EQUAL, and deserves to be treated fairly.  I understand that some groups were not, perhaps are not, treated fairly.  In current cases, we need to PUNISH the perpetrator, to protect EVERYONE, NOT single out a group for special treatment.  We need to attempt to be “fair” to EVERYONE, and treat everyone for laws as EQUALS.

Let me know what you think.

P.S.  The “all men are created equal”, is not to disparage women.  When this was written, the English language used the descriptor “men” to include everyone in a group, including women, if there was one man present in the group.  It was accepted as correct language usage.  Many “romantic” languages (Spanish, French, Italian, etc.) continue in this tradition today.  The tradition may be changing in the English language today, but please, do not apply todays “politically correctness” to another time period, that did NOT have those concerns.

Initial Claims for Unemployment MAY be Improving…

Let’s start with what I said last week:

“This week I will wager that the Initial Claims for Unemployment for this week is REVISED UPWARD to 385,000.”

This week (from FoxNews):

“The Labor Department says weekly applications for unemployment benefits fell by 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000 last week.”

And (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 385,000 from the previously reported 381,000.”

WHAT??  Another PERFECT estimate from your truly!!!  This weeks government propagandists say:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 19,000 to a seasonally adjusted 366,000, the Labor Department said.”

I will wager that next week this number is REVISED UPWARD to 370,000.  Any takers, yet?

I will leave you with two more quotes, first from CNBC and then from FoxNews:

“The unexpected drop in claims last week pushed them closer to the 350,000 mark that analysts say signals labor market strength.”

“When applications fall below 375,000 — consistently — that usually signals that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

Well, which is it??  350,000 or 375,000??

Initial Claims for Unemployment MIGHT be showing singns of improvement….MAYBE!!!

First, lets look at what I said last week:

“I will wager that this weeks number will AGAIN be revised UPWARD and will be 405,000.”

And what do the Government Propagandists “Statisticians” tell us today (from CNBC)?

“The prior week’s data was revised up to 404,000 from the previously reported 402,000.”

Missed by another 1,000 claims!!!  This time to the upside!!!  Maybe at the end of the year I will total the records of MY adjustments versus the Government’s adjustments, from the first post on this subject.  Also, notice how the Government’s number was REVISED UPWARD AGAIN!!!

What was the “news” this week (from FoxNews)?

“The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped by 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000.”

Wow!!  OK, that is a significant drop.  It is STILL not to a level that “signifies sustained improvement” in the Unemployment Rate.

This week I will wager that the Initial Claims for Unemployment for this week is REVISED UPWARD to 385,000.  Any takers?

Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post??  Well, it goes something like this.  The month is December.  Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity.  Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even?  Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc.  These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list.  I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year.  Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve.  At this point I am a skeptic!!

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac CONTINUE to LOSE your money…

Here are some updates on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.  Here is my previous post.

“Fannie Mae, the biggest source of money for U.S. home loans, on Tuesday said it needed a further $7.8 billion in federal aid to stay afloat…”

“The government-controlled mortgage giant Freddie Mac has requested $6 billion in additional aid after posting a wider loss in the third quarter.”

That is NOT for the year!!!  That is for ONE QUARTER!!!  90 DAYS!!!

“Taxpayers have spent about $169 billion to rescue Fannie and Freddie.”

I understand that not everyone has heard about this situation and I understand that not everyone cares/is interested/understands the how/what/where/when/why we, as taxpayers, bailed them out.  But here is where I have a serious problem.  The “Executives” of these “companies” have been getting paid BONUSES for LOSING money!!  Here are links to articles from PBS, FoxNews, LATimes, and Business Week.  There are MANY others, just google bonus at fannie mae.  Also, I think I have shown that this is a NON PARTISAN issue.  I mean, if you do not think that PBS and Fox News are political opposites, then you can stop reading this blog and find somewhere else to get your information.  Thanks for your time.

“When Congress learned that 12 executives at Fannie and Freddie were paid some $35 million in salary and bonuses over the last two years, that was the last straw.”

“The total compensation for the top six executives at Fannie and Freddie for 2009 and 2010 was $35.4 million, with Williams and Haldeman receiving about half of that. Each of them could take home as much as $6 million apiece in salary and bonuses in 2011.”

“Edward J. DeMarco, chief regulator of the two firms, approved packages in 2009 that awarded a total of $17 million over two years to chief executive officers Michael J. Williams of Fannie Mae and Ed Haldeman of Freddie Mac.”

Bonuses??!!  For what??  ONLY losing $169 BILLION!!!  Can I have that “job”??  I’ll do it for half!! 

These numbers do NOT include the $100′s of MILLIONS or BILLIONS that were given to “executives” prior to 2009, when they were making these fraudulent loans that were a main contributing factor to the HOUSING CRASH that has caused the global economy to grind to a stop, sent unempoyment above 9%, and caused so much pain and suffering for Americans.  STILL, no one has gone to JAIL for this fiasco!!  I will leave you with the best quote from these articles, this question is directed at the CEO’s of Fannie and Freddie:

“REP. DARRELL ISSA, R-Calif., Oversight and Government Reform Committee chairman: You made $9.3 million the last two years while the president made $800,000. Do you think that’s — that’s OK?”

That is basically what I have said previously.  If you work for the Government, you do NOT “deserve” to earn more than the President!!  Any questions??