The Dallas Fed President and the Economy….

Here is an article on CNBC with the following headline:

“Economy May Grow 4% in Second Half” – Dallas Fed Chief

I want EVERYONE to understand that CNBC is owned by Government General Electric.  They HAVE an agenda, and they are attempting to help their viewers pressure the Federal Reserve, the President, the Congress, and the Senate to come to a certain conclusion.  I will not say what I think that “conclusion” is, but here is another article quoting Mr. Fisher from Bloomberg.  The following is quote from the Bloomberg article:

“Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said he sees economic growth picking up in the second half while remaining slow…”

The rate in the first quarter was 1.8%.  I am not sure if Mr. Fisher believes that the economy will grow twice as fast in the second half, but I am doubtful.  Just some points to consider:

     1)  Greece (Ireland, Spain, Italy, Portugal, etc.) is about to explode with social unrest when they are FORCED to forfeit everything that was promised to them by their politicians.  IF Greece and the others implode and the banks fail it WILL affect the USA greatly.  In fact, this will make the failure of Lehman Brothers insignificant.

     2)  The Middle East (Egypt, Yemen, Libya, Syria just to name the ones that EVERYONE knows about) is undergoing a tectonic shift in politics.  Where it ends up is anyone’s guess at this point in time.  Will it be friendly to the USA, will it be hostile to the USA or will it land somewhere in the middle??  We still need OIL from these areas, because our “leaders” (from BOTH parties) have failed to act on energy security for 30 years.  I would venture the argument that the energy security of the USA has gotten much, much worse in the last 2 years.

     3)  China is curtailing its purchases of USA debt and attempting to diversify its foreign reserves.  This can ONLY put pressure on interest rates in the USA.  NOT if but WHEN Interest Rates move higher, the proportion of the revenues of the USA going to interest payments WILL rise dramatically.

     4)  The current occupant of The White House and his administration are doing EVERYTHING they can to enact new REGULATIONS (FCC, USDA, here, NLRB, etc.) that HINDER economic growth.  The previous examples are not inclusive and have left out the two largest question marks, TAXES and OBAMACARE, but does ANYONE think these policies HELP businesses, not including lobbyists, lawyers, accountants (people that actually produce NOTHING worthwhile) etc?

     5)  The Federal Reserve is going to stop the ONLY action (QE2) that has “helped” the stock market for the past 6 months, in 2 weeks.  And it ONLY cost $600 BILLION of your dollars, so Wall Street could “feel” better.  Doesn’t that make YOU feel better?

IF the Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher believes that the economy is going to do substantially better in the second half of 2011, I am willing to make a wager.  I say it will be NO better than 3% (I would go down to 2.5%, but then we would have to negotiate my salary first), if I am correct maybe Mr. Fisher could find me a job, working for the Federal Reserve (and I DO have some qualifications including education and work experience that would be useful to the Fed).  If I am wrong, I will NEVER bad mouth the Fed again.

What say you Mr. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher?

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