Oh my gosh, I have a surprise for you today!! Just like clockwork we have ANOTHER revision to the Initial Claims for Unemployment. OK, OK, OK………..It is NOT a SURPRISE!!! Yes, you are correct, the revision is UPWARD (AGAIN!!!) from last weeks reported number.
“The prior week’s figure was revised up to 399,000 from the previously reported 395,000.”
Here is my original post, the next weeks post and here is last weeks update. In ALL posts I was willing to make a wager, so I will continue.
I will wager that this weeks number of 408,000 claims will be revised UPWARD next week!
I did say that the new claims may not be revised above 400,000 this week, and I was correct It was WAY below 400,000 at 399,000!!! Does anyone really trust the “governments” revised figure of 399,000?? Is that one person willing to wager that the number is EXACTLY 399,000?? I would bet the farm that it is not!! In fact, I would be willing to wager that if I looked at the adjustments that “thay” made to get this number, I could make a VERY SMALL adjustment and the number would be above 400,000. After all, a 1,000 point change in a 400,000 number is only a 0.25% MISS!! The “revisions” that “they” have been doing have been as high as 2.25%. I think that “they” made sure the number was below 400,000 so that the news would stop reporting the number of weeks above 400,000.
“Applications have been above 400,000 for 18 of the past 19 weeks.”
Just another example of politics being used for propaganda.
Another problem that I have with the media are the following two quotes, one from Fox News and one from CNBC (referenced above):
“Still, the average number of applications over the past four weeks fell to its lowest level since mid-April. That suggests the job market may be improving.”
“The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 3,500 to 402,500.”
Why paint such a rosy picture?? Why look for the silver lining in these numbers?? I know during other Presidencies, when the numbers were not nearly so bad, all was doom and gloom. As for the first quote, I am willing to make another wager. I know, I know, it is just statistics. But, with the numbers that we have had (meaning NOT a large variation), IF this weeks number is ABOVE the moving average, the ONLY way for this moving average to continue moving lower is IF next weeks number is below the moving average by MORE than this weeks is above. I will wager that with all of the economic news that is hitting in the last few days that this will NOT happen. Is the author of the first quote going to reverse their position, when the moving average goes up to say that “suggests the job market may be getting worse”?
Just a question.