Unemployment claims (updated)….

Today is Thursday, time for another revision to a Government Number.  Yes, you are correct, the revision is to the Initial Claims for Unemployment, and yes, you are correct, the revision is UPWARD from last weeks reported number. 

“The prior week’s figure was revised up to 402,000 from the previously reported 400,000.”

Here is my original post, and here is last weeks update.  In both posts I was willing to make a wager, so I will continue.

I will wager that this weeks number of 395,000 claims will be revised UPWARD next week! 

I will say that the new claims may not be above 400,000 this week, after they are revised, so this may be the first week in 19 that the initial claims is below 400,000.  But really, is it much of a consolation if we are ONLY 5,000 below 400,000??  The estimate I have seen says that the initial claims need to be BELOW 300,000 to have any chance at reducing the overall unemployment number.

To the “government statisticians” supervisors:  I am willing to do this job for the same pay that you are paying the currently inept people.  I mean seriously, they are supposed to be STATISTICIANS!!!  They should understand, that I (and ANY other person that has taken graduate level statistics) can show with SCIENTIFIC SIGNIFICANCE that their “estimates” are LOW.  If they cannot come up with a better adjustment to their initial numbers, then they are INCOMPETENT (or political HACKS) and no longer deserve to be PAID by US.  We demand an HONEST and OBJECTIVE analysis to be done!!

To the supervisors:  If you are unwilling, or unable, to do YOUR jobs, I am willing and able to do your job as well!!

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