Unemployment claims (continued)….

Oh look, another Thursday morning, time for another Initial Claims for Unemployment number!!!

This post is a continuation of posts here, here, here and here.

Foxnews and CNBC have their reports.  Relevant quotes follow:

“The prior week’s claims were revised up to 412,000 from the previously reported 408,000.”

“The Labor Department says weekly applications rose 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 417,000, the highest level in five weeks.”

Can you believe it??  The prior weeks numbers were revised UPWARD…………..AGAIN!!!  Nobody took my wager, yet, but I will keep trying.  I will wager that next week, this weeks number of 417,000 will be revised UPWARD!!  Any takers?  I’ll even give odds of 2 to 1.

Following up on last weeks statistics lesson, I have the following quote:

“The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, rose 4,000 to 407,500.”

Unbelievable!!!  The moving average “ROSE”!!!  Oh, wait, that is what I said was going to happen, so, no surprise there.  I will make the following wager, although, the odds are becoming more even.  I will wager that the moving average RISES next week as well.  Any takers?  Next weeks number will need to be below 401,000 in order for the moving average to fall.  This could be a possibility, even though I am willing to wager that it will be greater than 401,000.

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