Unemployment claims (continued)….

Another week, another Initial Claims for Unemployment report.  And just like clock work, another UPWARD revision, which is NEGATIVE!!!  You can read my previous posts here, here, here, here and here.

Here is the article from FoxNews, the following is a quote:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications fell 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 409,000 last week, the first decline in three weeks.”

Please notice that applications fell 12,000.  If you have not read my previous posts, my complaints are that the media is attempting to make the numbers seem better than they are.  Last week the Initial Claims number was:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications rose 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 417,000, the highest level in five weeks.”

First, notice that last week the number was 417,000.  That is a bad number, correct?  But is it better than say, oh I don’t know, 421,000?  You know, the ACTUAL number!!  Because that is what the number was revised to this week, and this pattern has continued for as long as I have noticed, and this is 6 weeks for which I have linked.

Second, if we keep the original number, then claims would have ONLY dropped 8,000, NOT 12,000.  You see, by purposely under reporting the number EVERY week, they are able to imply that the initial claims are smaller than they actually are, while at the same time implying that the number is getting smaller faster (or growing slower) than it actual is.

Finally I have my favorite quote:

“Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the job market may be improving slightly.”

You see, it is “improving”… and yet when it is DEFINITELY getting worse, say the last three weeks, there was NO INDICATION that the employment picture was deteriorating!!

For anyone that has not been paying attention, historically, if the Initial Claims for unemployment is NOT LESS THAN 200,000, then the employment situation is NOT GETTING BETTER!!!  Said another way, the US economy, in good times, has been able to produce more than enough jobs, on a weekly basis, to absorb 200,000 of new claims and all of the new entrants to the jobs picture (this number includes people that are now 18, immigrants, new graduates, a house wife that decides she wants a job, etc.).  The US economy IS UNABLE to produce more jobs than that for a sustained period.

Also, now the media is NOT reporting the four week moving average.  Last week, with the moving average at 407,500,  I said:

“I will wager that the moving average RISES next week as well.”

Well, it did.  Here is a quote from the government:

“The 4-week moving average was 410,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 408,500”

Please notice that this 4-week moving average number is ALSO being revised UPWARD!!  It was revised from 407,500 to 408,500, before the new average is calculated at 410,250.  So here is ANOTHER statistic that is not being ACCURATELY reported by the government the first time.

I will still wager that this weeks number gets revised UPWARD next week.  Any takers???

Advertisements

Tags: , , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: