Archive for October, 2011

Unemployment Claims REMAIN above 400,000…..

October 27, 2011

Well, it has finally happened!!!  No, the Government Propagandists did NOT revise their estimates downward, they continue the UNBROKEN record of continuing to UNDERESTIMATE the Initial Claims for Unemployment.  However, it appears that they have finally “estimated” closer to the real number, than I did.  Last week I said:

“Well, this week I will wager that the number is 407,000, NOT 403,000.”

This week, it appears the revision was only UP TO 404,000!!  They missed by 1,000 to the downside (the smallest miss that I have documented), and I missed by 3,000 to the upside, my largest miss.  If anyone would have taken my wagers, they would have finally won one.

This weeks number comes via CNBC:

“A separate report from the Labor Department showed new claims for state unemployment benefits fell 2,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 402,000, pointing to a gradual improvement in the labor market.”

This makes ALL of the weeks since March of 2011 above 399,000, except ONE.  Also notice that this is “pointing to a gradual improvement in the market”, according to CNBC.  Seriously, a “gradual improvement”??  IF this is improvement, my SLOWEST SNAIL in the history of the world would lap this DOG in a one lap race!!!  Also notice, on the CNBC page, a LARGE GREEN ARROW POINTING UP.  Seriously??  Can there be a more blatant attempt at subliminal advertising??  Where would the unemployment figure have to be for a great big red arrow pointing down??  Does it vary depending on who is in office??

And from FoxNews:

“Jobless numbers remained at a perilously high 402,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday, even as the U.S. economy overall showed modest growth in the third quarter, offering a hopeful glimmer that the jobless rate could improve in the coming months.”

And this is supposed to be the “News” outlet that is “extreme right” and “against Obama” and “wants to eat your babies because they hate America” and are the “mouthpiece of the Republican Party”. (sarc off)  This news is “offering a hopeful glimmer that the jobless rate could improve”??  Seriously??  OR, it could be the last breath of a dying economy and the future holds ONLY dark days for everyone!!  Since when do “they” need to add their complete NONSENSE to the reporting of “statistics”??  In the last 6 months, they have reported the “sustainable job growth number” to be 350,000, 375,000 and 400,000!!  We are STILL above 400,000!!!  There is no hope until the Government gets out-of-the-way.  There are NO “hopeful glimmers”!! 

Last weeks Inflation number should be the FINAL nail in the coffin for any hope, it came in at (from the BLS):

“Broad increases in food indexes also continued in September, with the food at home index rising 0.6 percent for the third month in a row and no major grocery store food group indexes declining.” (emphasis added)

Read that again.  The cost of food, that thing that EVERYONE eats, went up 0.6% for the third month in a row.  Inflation, for essentials, is RISING.  Unemployment is going NOWHERE.  Things in this country are NOT getting better………….yet.

This week I will wager that the initial claims for unemployment is closer to 405,000 than 402,000.  Any takers yet?  Any questions?

Higher Education, Student Loans and Costs…

October 26, 2011

The One, President Obama, is attempting to help college students/graduates.  He is proposing that the government give new loans to students/graduates that will have a smaller monthly repayment and after 20 years what ever is left will be forgiven.  Just so EVERYONE understands, when the loan is “forgiven”, that means that the Government, and by extension, US, will not be paid back in full.  That means that WE will be GIVING money to the people who cannot pay back the loans in full.  That is money from US, the American Taxpayer, that is just GIVEN away!!!

Here is an article on CNBC and one on the Daily Caller.

I have rhetorical question (ooooohhh look I used a BIG word, must have went to college).  Since the socialist/leftist/marxist/communist/dirt bags already pretty much control what is taught at Institutions of Higher Learning, AND they have demonstrated their ideas to CONTROL THE COSTS of Healthcare (so that those EVIL insurance companies cannot earn so much in GREEDY profits, why doesn’t President Obama propose to CAP TUITION RATES???  Lets say tuition should be AT MOST $10,000/year at ALL public Universities/Colleges/Schools.  This includes any Institution that receives ANY government money in the form of student loans, grants, loans, research, etc.  I mean that is still LESS than what WE spend on pre-college (lack of) “education“!!!

What say you Mr. President???  I might support a CAP on tuition…..

Initial Claims for Unemployment STILL above 400,000….

October 20, 2011

Last week I said:

“I’ll wager that the number is 408,000.”

And just like clockwork, The Obama Administration propagandists update last weeks number to……(from FoxNews):

“The Labor Department says weekly applications dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 403,000. The department revised last week’s figure upward to 409,000.”

Revised UPWARD, AGAIN, to 409,000!!!  Damn!!!  I missed it by ANOTHER 1,000 claims.  Only this time, it was to the downside.  And for those people keeping track of MY estimations, this means that MY estimations over 4 weeks are EXACTLY spot on!!!  You see when, in four weeks, one misses to the downside twice by 1,000 jobs each AND one misses the other two weeks by 1,000 jobs to the upside, the result is a wash.  A PERFECT estimation!!!  With NO REVISIONS!!!  Unlike the Government sponsored propagandists that ALWAYS estimate to low, in order to make the number “sound better” for the Administration.

Well, this week I will wager that the number is 407,000, NOT 403,000.  Any takers??

Also, continuing on with the discussion from last week.  It seems that CNBC cannot get the story straight.  This week they claim:

“This decline in initial claims signals the potential for an improvement in the pace of job creation in October relative to recent months,” said John Ryding, an economist with RDQ Economics. “However, we are still waiting for that decisive move in claims below the 400,000 mark to send a stronger signal that payroll growth is running at a pace that will begin to make sustained inroads into unemployment.”

And the next paragraph says:

“Many economists say applications need to fall consistently below 375,000 to signal sustainable job growth.”

Well, which is it CNBC??  Is it 375,000 or is it 400,000??  OR is it the 350,000, that you reported on August 11?

Also, notice how hard CNBC is trying to make the report POSITIVE.

“…signals the potential for an improvement in the pace of job creation…”

You mean there MIGHT be a CHANCE that things COULD be getting better???  Puhleeeeeeese!!!  I would like to see any jobs report that they tried to make look this good during a Republican Presidents term!!!

Unemployment REMAINS above 400,000 AGAIN….

October 13, 2011

Another week, another dismal unemployment number and another UPWARD revision of the number that came from the Obama Administration.  Last week:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 401,000, the Labor Department said.”

No they did not!!!  Initial claims SOARED to 405,000!!!  From CNBC this week:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 404,000, the Labor Department said, from an upwardly revised 405,000 the prior week.”

And remember that last week I said:

“I will wager that this weeks number is closer to 406,000 than 401,000.”

Damn!!!  I missed it by ANOTHER 1,000 claims to the upside.  This puts MY estimation, over three weeks, off by 1,000 jobs.  In other words I have missed the number by 333 jobs per week.  As opposed to the Government propagandists, from the Bureau of Labor “Statistics”, who are off by 13,000 jobs, or 4,333 jobs per week.  Always to the downside!!!

This week the 4-week moving average is:

“The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 7,000 to 408,000.”

This number also includes an UPWARD revision of 1,000 jobs from last week.

So, this week they said 404,000 new claims.  I’ll wager that the number is 408,000.  Any takers, yet??

Something else that I noticed today from our “friends” at CNBC (which is owned by Government General Electric, and run by a very close friend of The One, Jeffery Immelt) is illustrated in the following quotes.

From CNBC on August 11:

“Economists say both initial claims and the four-week average need to drop close to 350,000 to signal a sustainable improvement in the labor market.”

and from CNBC on September 15:

“Applications need to fall below 375,000 to indicate that hiring is increasing enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

and from CNBC on October 13:

“Initial claims stayed close to the 400,000 mark usually associated with some improvement in the jobs market for a third straight week.”

So, in the course of 60 days, it appears that the numbers “needed to show improvement” keep getting WORSE, which is BETTER for the Obama Administration.  Very curious.


October 6, 2011

Another week of the Obama Presidency and another week with an UPWARD revision to last weeks numbers!!!

Last week the Government propagandists statisticians said:

“Weekly claims slipped below the psychologically important 400,000 mark, falling 37,000 to 391,000..”

This week they say (from CNBC):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 401,000, the Labor Department said, from a revised 395,000 the prior week.”

Last week I wagered that the number would be:

“I say that this weeks number is 396,000 NOT 391,000”

Damn!!!  I missed it by ANOTHER 1,000 claims.  Only this time I was ABOVE the actual number by 1,000.  Which puts my two-week estimation EXACTLY at reality.  You see, when you miss one week by 1,000 to the downside, and miss another week by 1,000 to the upside, your error over that time period is ZERO.  Does anyone at the government hear me yet??  My “estimations” are BETTER!!!  Unlike the governments propagandists, who consistently publish misleading statistics which are BELOW the actual number.  As I’ve said before, if they were true statisticians their estimations WOULD NOT consistently miss to EITHER side.

I will wager that this weeks number is closer to 406,000 than 401,000.  Any takers??

The four-week average CONTINUES to remain WELL ABOVE 400,000 at:

“Last week, the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 4,000 to 414,000.”

And for the foreseeable future the four-week average WILL REMAIN ABOVE 400,000!!!  Thank you Mr. President.