Another week of the Obama Presidency and another week with an UPWARD revision to last weeks numbers!!!

Last week the Government propagandists statisticians said:

“Weekly claims slipped below the psychologically important 400,000 mark, falling 37,000 to 391,000..”

This week they say (from CNBC):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 401,000, the Labor Department said, from a revised 395,000 the prior week.”

Last week I wagered that the number would be:

“I say that this weeks number is 396,000 NOT 391,000”

Damn!!!  I missed it by ANOTHER 1,000 claims.  Only this time I was ABOVE the actual number by 1,000.  Which puts my two-week estimation EXACTLY at reality.  You see, when you miss one week by 1,000 to the downside, and miss another week by 1,000 to the upside, your error over that time period is ZERO.  Does anyone at the government hear me yet??  My “estimations” are BETTER!!!  Unlike the governments propagandists, who consistently publish misleading statistics which are BELOW the actual number.  As I’ve said before, if they were true statisticians their estimations WOULD NOT consistently miss to EITHER side.

I will wager that this weeks number is closer to 406,000 than 401,000.  Any takers??

The four-week average CONTINUES to remain WELL ABOVE 400,000 at:

“Last week, the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 4,000 to 414,000.”

And for the foreseeable future the four-week average WILL REMAIN ABOVE 400,000!!!  Thank you Mr. President.

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