Weekly Unemployment claims SOAR above 400,000 AGAIN!!!

This week I will start with the quotes (from CNBC):

“Weekly applications for unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 402,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.”

(and from FoxNews):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed to a seasonally adjusted 402,000 from an upwardly revised 396,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.”

And last week I said:

“I will wager that this weeks number gets REVISED UPWARD to 395,000.”

I missed it by 1,000 claims to the downside, and the government propagandists “statisticians” missed to the DOWNSIDE AGAIN.  Really??  I think I have proven that it is NOT that difficult to make a better estimate.  As, I have said before, IF they were true “statisticians” as opposed to a government mouthpiece they would have errors to both sides of the final number.  As it stands, I cannot find a time during the Obama Administration that they have had to revise their “estimate” downward.

I will wager that this weeks number will AGAIN be revised UPWARD and will be 405,000.  Any takers??

Also FoxNews says this week:

“New claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, popping above 400,000 for the first time in just over a month and reinforcing the view that the battered labor market was healing only slowly.”

but last week FoxNews said:

“Even so, weekly applications would need to stay below 375,000 consistently to push down the unemployment rate significantly.”

Well, which is it FoxNews??  Is 400,000 a labor market that is “healing slowly”?  Or does it need to “stay below 375,000 consistently”??  I won’t even ask about the 350,000.

Now for some cynicism.  I keep hearing the Democrats argue that they “want” an extension of the “extended unemployment benefits” and saying that the Republicans are fighting to let them expire unless we can “tax the rich more”.  Here is my view of the situation.  The Republicans are in a no win situation, because the Democrats are going to let them expire, no matter what the Republicans offer.  Here is why.  IF the benefits expire, then everyone that is unemployed for more 9 months (I believe this is what the law will revert to, if I am incorrect please leave a comment), instead of the current temporary 99 weeks (which is just short of 2 years) will NO LONGER BE COUNTED IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.  IF this happens, the Unemployment Rate will have a sudden drop from the current 9+% rate.  This will make the numbers “look” like they improved, so President Obama can claim to be improving the economy.  He will get on TV everyday and say that he brought the unemployment rate down from 9+% (it was over 9% thanks to President Bush and the Republicans) to x%, and that is why he “deserves” to remain President.  It would have come down sooner except the Republicans in Congress stopped him from helping out sooner.

Let me know what you think.

Advertisements

Tags: , ,

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: