Initial Claims for Unemployment MIGHT be showing singns of improvement….MAYBE!!!

First, lets look at what I said last week:

“I will wager that this weeks number will AGAIN be revised UPWARD and will be 405,000.”

And what do the Government Propagandists “Statisticians” tell us today (from CNBC)?

The prior week’s data was revised up to 404,000 from the previously reported 402,000.”

Missed by another 1,000 claims!!!  This time to the upside!!!  Maybe at the end of the year I will total the records of MY adjustments versus the Government’s adjustments, from the first post on this subject.  Also, notice how the Government’s number was REVISED UPWARD AGAIN!!!

What was the “news” this week (from FoxNews)?

“The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped by 23,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000.”

Wow!!  OK, that is a significant drop.  It is STILL not to a level that “signifies sustained improvement” in the Unemployment Rate.

This week I will wager that the Initial Claims for Unemployment for this week is REVISED UPWARD to 385,000.  Any takers?

Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post??  Well, it goes something like this.  The month is December.  Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity.  Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even?  Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc.  These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list.  I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year.  Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve.  At this point I am a skeptic!!


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