Initial Claims for Unemployment MAY be Improving continued…

Last week I said:

“I will wager that next week this number is REVISED UPWARD to 370,000.”

And this week the verdict is…..from CNBC:

The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 368,000 from the previously reported 366,000.”

Wow….my largest miss yet, 2,000 to the upside.

The Initial claims from the government propagandists this week is:

“Jobless claims, meanwhile, posted another weekly drop in another sign that the thawing of the labor market is progressing. The fall to 364,000 was the lowest level in more than three years.”

I will wager that next week this number will be revised UPWARD to 368,000, NO change.  Any takers?  And don’t forget that this week is Christmas and next week is New Years, so wouldn’t you think that these numbers should be lower?  I mean, when I owned and ran my own businesses (a small business, like MOST of the businesses in America, that employ the largest number of workers) there is NO way I would have laid someone off during the Holidays.  I would have warned, but there is NO way they would have been unemployed.  Please remember what I said two weeks ago:

Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post??  Well, it goes something like this.  The month is December.  Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity.  Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even?  Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc.  These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list.  I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year.  Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve.  At this point I am a skeptic!!”

The main point is STILL valid, I will wait till after the New Year to draw conclusions about the labor market.  It may be a few weeks into January before the picture becomes clear.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!!  Happy Chanukah!!  Happy Kwanzaa!!  Happy Holidays!!  If I have missed anyone, it is NOT meant as disrespect.


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