Archive for January, 2012

Fast and Furious, and MY challenge to “Democrats”….

January 31, 2012

By now you should have heard about Operation Fast and Furious conducted by the Department of Justice (Eric Holder), the State Department (Hillary Clinton), the Department of Homeland Security (Janet Napolitano), the FBI, ATF (Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives) and other Government organizations.

Sharyl Attkisson with CBS News has done a great job documenting the scandal, so if you would like more information, her page is a great place to start.

Now we get this from the Democrats investigating the scandal:

“”It is clear that ATF agents in Phoenix and prosecutors in the Arizona U.S. Attorney’s Office embarked on a deliberate strategy not to arrest suspected straw purchasers while they attempted to make larger cases against higher-level targets,” the report reads.”

and

“”Although these officials claimed they had no probable cause to arrest any straw purchasers at the time, allowing hundreds of illegally purchased military-grade assault weapons to fall into the hands of violent drug cartels over the course of five years created an obvious and inexcusable threat to public safety on both sides of the border.”(my emphasis)

So, let me get this straight.  Just because some weapons were ILLEGALLY purchased, there was NO PROBABLE CAUSE???  Excuse me!!!  When do we have probable cause??  If something is ILLEGAL, then it is AGAINST the law!!  This has nothing to do with what the definition of is, is!!! 

These are Department of Justice officials.  Their job is to prosecute the LAWS OF THE UNITED STATES………without prejudice!!  They deserve to be fired…..at a minimum.

Here is MY challenge to the “Democrats” that authored this report.  Fine!!  I will agree with your conclusions.  Now, we need to charge these officials with wrong doing and have a trial.  They BROKE the laws of the United States (by allowing/selling weapons to unauthorized personnel, hence the ILLEGAL purchases) and International law (by allowing those ILLEGALLY purchase weapons to knowingly cross an International border with Mexico).  I want a TRIAL.  IF they are the ones responsible they should end up in JAIL!!  I doubt that this does not go higher into Obama’s Administration, so it will be interesting to see their defense.

What say you, Democrats??  Are we going to have a TRIAL??

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Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving, Take 2…

January 26, 2012

Last week I said:

“This week I will wager that with another UPWARD revision, the claims will be at least 355,000 this week.”

and this week the news is….(from CNBC):

“The number of first-time unemployment applications rose 21,000 last week, the Labor Department said.”

and

“The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000….”

So lets see, 377,000 – 21,000 = 356,000.  I missed on my estimate by 1,000, and AGAIN my estimate is closer to reality, by a FACTOR, than the Government Propagandists!!!  Also, please note that the revision of the previous weeks number was AGAIN AN UPWARD REVISION.  So, they are still trying to pain a more rosy picture than actually exists in the real world!!

This week I will wager that the number is revised UPWARD again to at least 380,000.  Any takers?

Something else I would like to discuss in the CNBC article:

“Applications have trended down over the past few months. The four week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

Please remember that CNBC was more than willing to point out that “things were getting better” on such flimsy evidence as:

“When applications drop below 375,000 — consistently — that generally signals hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate. Prior to last week’s spike, applications had been below 375,000 for three of the past four weeks.”

See how optimistic that is?  However, I seem to have missed ANY MENTION of the fact that for “three of the past four weeks” applications have been ABOVE 375,000, signaling the fact that the unemployment rate is NOT GOING TO IMPROVE!!!

Things that make you go, HMMMMM?

Initial Claims for Unemployment MAY be Improving, Take 2…

January 19, 2012

WOW!!!

This week I will start out with a report of the Initial Claims for Unemployment for this week (from CNBC):

“Weekly unemployment benefit applications dropped to 352,000, the fewest in nearly four years.”

and (from FoxNews):

“The number of people in the U.S. seeking unemployment benefits plummeted last week to 352,000, the fewest since April 2008.”

352,000!!  That is a GOOD number.  Not great, BUT if we can continue to move in the right direction on this scale, things will BEGIN to improve in the United States of America for the first time since Obama ascended to the Presidency.  I will still not blame the improvement on Him.  In other words it is NOT his fault things may be getting better.  Should not be too difficult for Him to accept this.  He has NOT taken responsibility for anything since He took office………..as a Senator!!!

I am not saying that we have entered the calm seas and the sailing will be easy from here.  We still have to deal with ALL of the people who are unemployed that the Government Propaganda machine does not count, which would push the official unemployment rate above 10%.  We still have to hope that Europe can figure a way out of its mess.  We still have to hope that Iran does not do something stupid.  We still have to deal with ObamaCare and its effects on employment.  We will still have to deal with the rate of inflation and the fact that earnings and interest rates did NOT keep up.  And we have to deal with an Election Year.  Oh wait….scratch that last one…..IF the President and Congress can agree on NOTHING it will be good for US.

Now, for what I said last week:

“Would you want to wager that next week the number is HIGHER than 399,000??”

from FoxNews:

“Weekly applications fell 50,000, the biggest drop in the seasonally adjusted figure in more than six years, the Labor Department said Thursday.”

Lets see, 352,000 + 50,000 = 402,000 claims for last week.  Looks like I win another bet!!  I was off by 3,000 this week, but I said 399,000 to make a point.  I picked that number to imply that the number would be greater than the magic 400,000 number.  So, I would like some artistic slack in the size of my mis-estimation last week.  This week I will wager that with another UPWARD revision, the claims will be at least 355,000 this week.  Any takers??

Initial Claims for Unemployment, the expected Holiday Hangover!!!

January 12, 2012

Last week I said:

“Hey FoxNews, I will wager that this week’s number will be revised UPWARD to at least 375,000!!! “

And this week the news is (from CNBC):

“The Labor Department said Thursday that applications jumped by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 399,000, the most in six weeks.”

And (from FoxNews):

“Weekly applications rose by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 399,000, the Labor Department said Thursday”

Let’s see, I have to do some math.  399,000 – 24,000 equals…..carry the one…. 375,000.  OMG, another PERFECT estimate by yours truly.  See, government propagandists statisticians of the NON-Labor Department, it is NOT that difficult!!!  Oh, wait!!  I forgot you guys are trying to make it look better for Dear Leader, and do not care about the TRUTH.  My bad!!  I still say that I could INCREASE the accuracy of your forecasts, for a price that is.

More from FoxNews:

“Applications for weekly unemployment benefits spiked last week, largely because companies let go of thousands of workers after the holiday season.”

As a side note, FoxNews, it is only a “spike” if the next number is lower (closer to 375,000 would be a symmetrical “spike”).  Would you want to wager that next week the number is HIGHER than 399,000??  And remember what I said a month ago:

Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post??  Well, it goes something like this.  The month is December.  Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity.  Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even?  Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc.  These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list.  I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year.  Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve.  At this point I am a skeptic!!”

Looks like I was correct in being SKEPTICAL!!  This week I will wager that next week this 399,000 number for Initial Claims gets revised, UPWARD AGAIN, to 403,000, which is above the TOXIC 400,000 level!!  Any takers??

Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving continued…

January 5, 2012

Here is what I said last week about the initial claims for unemployment:

“I will wager that this number gets revised UPWARD again to at least 384,000.”

And this week the adjust is….. (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 387,000 from the previously reported 381,000.”

You see, this “adjustment” is the LARGEST amount, 6,000, since I started pointing out that the Labor Department and the Bureau of “Labor Statistics” (ROFLMAO……sorry I could not help my self) should be renamed the PROPAGANDA Department.  Why would this be the LARGEST adjustment, you ask yourself??  I can think of at least three GOOD reasons why the Government and OBAMA would want this number to appear “better” than it actually is!!!  And do NOT forget that the previous week the “adjustment” was smaller than normal.

1.  To make the American people feel better over the CHRISTMAS Holiday Season

2.  To close out the year 2011 on a less negative outlook, and

3.  The Iowa Caucus was this week.  If President Obama can blunt some of the criticism from the GOP, well that would be a Bonus!!

Call me a cynic.

This week the numbers are (from FoxNews):

“The Labor Department says weekly applications dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000 last week.”

and my favorite quote from FoxNews:

“When applications drop below 375,000 — consistently — they generally signal that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate.”

Hey FoxNews, I will wager that this week’s number will be revised UPWARD to at least 375,000!!!  Do you want to take that bet?? 

Since that would make two weeks in a row that the rate is at least 375,000, does that mean that hiring is NOT strong and we should NOT expect a reduction in the unemployment rate??  Not only that, but last week, the number was WELL ABOVE 375,000!!!  By the way, you still have not answered my question about the 350,000 versus the 375,000 numbers!!  Which is it?