Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving, Take 2…

Last week I said:

“This week I will wager that with another UPWARD revision, the claims will be at least 355,000 this week.”

and this week the news is….(from CNBC):

“The number of first-time unemployment applications rose 21,000 last week, the Labor Department said.”


“The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000….”

So lets see, 377,000 – 21,000 = 356,000.  I missed on my estimate by 1,000, and AGAIN my estimate is closer to reality, by a FACTOR, than the Government Propagandists!!!  Also, please note that the revision of the previous weeks number was AGAIN AN UPWARD REVISION.  So, they are still trying to pain a more rosy picture than actually exists in the real world!!

This week I will wager that the number is revised UPWARD again to at least 380,000.  Any takers?

Something else I would like to discuss in the CNBC article:

“Applications have trended down over the past few months. The four week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

Please remember that CNBC was more than willing to point out that “things were getting better” on such flimsy evidence as:

“When applications drop below 375,000 — consistently — that generally signals hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate. Prior to last week’s spike, applications had been below 375,000 for three of the past four weeks.”

See how optimistic that is?  However, I seem to have missed ANY MENTION of the fact that for “three of the past four weeks” applications have been ABOVE 375,000, signaling the fact that the unemployment rate is NOT GOING TO IMPROVE!!!

Things that make you go, HMMMMM?

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