Archive for February, 2012

Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving, Take 2…(continued)

February 2, 2012

Sometimes I just have to laugh.  Here is the headline from FoxNews:

“Fewer seek unemployment aid as job market improves”

Really??  Said as a matter of fact?? Or how about this from the same article:

“When applications stay consistently below 375,000, it usually signals that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

When they say stay below 375,000, do they mean for ONE WHOLE WEEK??  Because last week it was NOT below 375,000!!!

And here is the headline from CNBC:

“Weekly Claims Still Falling; Productivity Gains Easing”

STILL falling??  Doesn’t that imply that the number has been falling for at least two weeks??

Here is what I said last week:

“This week I will wager that the number is revised UPWARD again to at least 380,000.”

And the verdict is (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s figure was revised up to 379,000 from the previously reported 377,000.”

Missed by ANOTHER 1,000 jobs!!!  And again I missed to the upside, this time.  Which means that my estimates miss to BOTH sides of the actual number, so when combined MY estimates are MUCH MORE ACCURATE than the government propagandists!!!

So just to summarize, two weeks ago the number was 356,000.  Then last week the number was 379,000.  Wow, that looks like the number is getting bigger, or RISING!!  As opposed to STILL falling!!!  This week the number is:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department said.”

367,000!!!  Not only is the number NOT “still falling”, but it is STILL larger than it was two weeks ago.  This week I will wager that this number is revised UPWARD, AGAIN, to at least 370,000.  Any takers??

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