Posts Tagged ‘4 week moving average’

Initial Claims for Unemployment STILL above 400,000….

October 20, 2011

Last week I said:

“I’ll wager that the number is 408,000.”

And just like clockwork, The Obama Administration propagandists update last weeks number to……(from FoxNews):

“The Labor Department says weekly applications dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 403,000. The department revised last week’s figure upward to 409,000.”

Revised UPWARD, AGAIN, to 409,000!!!  Damn!!!  I missed it by ANOTHER 1,000 claims.  Only this time, it was to the downside.  And for those people keeping track of MY estimations, this means that MY estimations over 4 weeks are EXACTLY spot on!!!  You see when, in four weeks, one misses to the downside twice by 1,000 jobs each AND one misses the other two weeks by 1,000 jobs to the upside, the result is a wash.  A PERFECT estimation!!!  With NO REVISIONS!!!  Unlike the Government sponsored propagandists that ALWAYS estimate to low, in order to make the number “sound better” for the Administration.

Well, this week I will wager that the number is 407,000, NOT 403,000.  Any takers??

Also, continuing on with the discussion from last week.  It seems that CNBC cannot get the story straight.  This week they claim:

“This decline in initial claims signals the potential for an improvement in the pace of job creation in October relative to recent months,” said John Ryding, an economist with RDQ Economics. “However, we are still waiting for that decisive move in claims below the 400,000 mark to send a stronger signal that payroll growth is running at a pace that will begin to make sustained inroads into unemployment.”

And the next paragraph says:

“Many economists say applications need to fall consistently below 375,000 to signal sustainable job growth.”

Well, which is it CNBC??  Is it 375,000 or is it 400,000??  OR is it the 350,000, that you reported on August 11?

Also, notice how hard CNBC is trying to make the report POSITIVE.

“…signals the potential for an improvement in the pace of job creation…”

You mean there MIGHT be a CHANCE that things COULD be getting better???  Puhleeeeeeese!!!  I would like to see any jobs report that they tried to make look this good during a Republican Presidents term!!!

Unemployment REMAINS above 400,000 AGAIN….

October 13, 2011

Another week, another dismal unemployment number and another UPWARD revision of the number that came from the Obama Administration.  Last week:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 401,000, the Labor Department said.”

No they did not!!!  Initial claims SOARED to 405,000!!!  From CNBC this week:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 404,000, the Labor Department said, from an upwardly revised 405,000 the prior week.”

And remember that last week I said:

“I will wager that this weeks number is closer to 406,000 than 401,000.”

Damn!!!  I missed it by ANOTHER 1,000 claims to the upside.  This puts MY estimation, over three weeks, off by 1,000 jobs.  In other words I have missed the number by 333 jobs per week.  As opposed to the Government propagandists, from the Bureau of Labor “Statistics”, who are off by 13,000 jobs, or 4,333 jobs per week.  Always to the downside!!!

This week the 4-week moving average is:

“The four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 7,000 to 408,000.”

This number also includes an UPWARD revision of 1,000 jobs from last week.

So, this week they said 404,000 new claims.  I’ll wager that the number is 408,000.  Any takers, yet??

Something else that I noticed today from our “friends” at CNBC (which is owned by Government General Electric, and run by a very close friend of The One, Jeffery Immelt) is illustrated in the following quotes.

From CNBC on August 11:

“Economists say both initial claims and the four-week average need to drop close to 350,000 to signal a sustainable improvement in the labor market.”

and from CNBC on September 15:

“Applications need to fall below 375,000 to indicate that hiring is increasing enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

and from CNBC on October 13:

“Initial claims stayed close to the 400,000 mark usually associated with some improvement in the jobs market for a third straight week.”

So, in the course of 60 days, it appears that the numbers “needed to show improvement” keep getting WORSE, which is BETTER for the Obama Administration.  Very curious.

UNEMPLOYMENT SOARS OVER 400,000 AGAIN!!!

October 6, 2011

Another week of the Obama Presidency and another week with an UPWARD revision to last weeks numbers!!!

Last week the Government propagandists statisticians said:

“Weekly claims slipped below the psychologically important 400,000 mark, falling 37,000 to 391,000..”

This week they say (from CNBC):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 401,000, the Labor Department said, from a revised 395,000 the prior week.”

Last week I wagered that the number would be:

“I say that this weeks number is 396,000 NOT 391,000”

Damn!!!  I missed it by ANOTHER 1,000 claims.  Only this time I was ABOVE the actual number by 1,000.  Which puts my two-week estimation EXACTLY at reality.  You see, when you miss one week by 1,000 to the downside, and miss another week by 1,000 to the upside, your error over that time period is ZERO.  Does anyone at the government hear me yet??  My “estimations” are BETTER!!!  Unlike the governments propagandists, who consistently publish misleading statistics which are BELOW the actual number.  As I’ve said before, if they were true statisticians their estimations WOULD NOT consistently miss to EITHER side.

I will wager that this weeks number is closer to 406,000 than 401,000.  Any takers??

The four-week average CONTINUES to remain WELL ABOVE 400,000 at:

“Last week, the four-week moving average of claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 4,000 to 414,000.”

And for the foreseeable future the four-week average WILL REMAIN ABOVE 400,000!!!  Thank you Mr. President.

Unemployment Claims…..again…..

September 30, 2011

Another week, another UPWARD revision (which is NEGATIVE) from the “government propagandists statisticians”.

From CNBC:

“Weekly claims slipped below the psychologically important 400,000 mark, falling 37,000 to 391,000..”

Remember last week:

Applications for unemployment benefits dropped to 423,000 in the week ending Sept.17 from an upwardly revised 432,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.”

See that, they said the number was 423,000 last week, but really it was 428,000 (391,000+37,000).

And the four week moving average is (still from CNBC):

“The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell to 417,000, the first drop in six weeks.”

Last week I was willing to make the following wager

“I will wager that next week, this weeks number will be closer to 427,000 than 423,000.”

I was off, but it was much LESS than the Government Propagandists, by 1,000 jobs!!!

I will make the following wager:  I say that this weeks number is 396,000 NOT 391,000.  Any takers??  I guess we will see next week.

Unemployment Claims…..again…..

September 22, 2011

Blah, blah, blah……….

Another week, another UPWARD revision (which is NEGATIVE) from the “government propagandists statisticians”.

From CNBC:

“Applications for unemployment benefits dropped to 423,000 in the week ending Sept.17 from an upwardly revised 432,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.”

Remember last week:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications rose by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 428,000.”

See that, they said the number was 428,000 last week, but really it was 432,000.

And the four week moving average is (still from CNBC):

“The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out volatility, rose to 421,000 from 420,500 the prior week.”

But the prior week it was:

“The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose for the fourth straight week to 419,500.”

Shouldn’t the article MENTION that revision??

Since no one is taking my wagers, I will make it a little more interesting.  I will wager that next week, this weeks number will be closer to 427,000 than 423,000.  Any takers??

FIRE all the propagandists!!!

Unemployment claims….(continued)

September 15, 2011

Here we go again.  Another week another revision UPWARD.  Here is last weeks “claim”

“Applications for unemployment benefits rose to 414,000 in the week ending Sept. 3 from an upwardly revised 412,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.”

And this week from FoxNews:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications rose by 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 428,000.”

OK, let’s do some basic math, 428,000 – 11,000 = 417,000.  But wait, last weeks number was 414,000!!!  That is correct, let’s revise last weeks number UPWARD to 417,000.  Look, the “government statisticians” are off by another 3,000 to the downside AGAIN (which makes the number look better). And,

“The four-week average, a less volatile measure, rose for the fourth straight week to 419,500.”

I will still BET that they revise this weeks number upward, and this is a standing bet UNTIL the “government statisticians” actually do their JOBS, as opposed to being paid propagandists!!!  Also notice that there is NO more talk of the economy getting better, but also notice that the article does NOT say things are getting worse!!!  Which they are!!!  A quote from CNBC:

“Applications have been rising over the past month, a signal that the job market remains depressed.”

Depressed????  That’s it???

Disgusting!!!

Unemployment claims….(continued)

September 8, 2011

Links to my previous post can be found here.

Today is another Thursday, and just like clockwork, another revision UPWARD (which is negative) of the previous weeks numbers.  From CNBC:

“Applications for unemployment benefits rose to 414,000 in the week ending Sept. 3 from an upwardly revised 412,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.”

Last week the number was 409,000, so we revised the number UP 3,000. And the 4 week moving average is now:

“The four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out volatility, rose to 414,750 from 411,000 the prior week.”

Please notice that the “government statisticians” continue to low ball the unemployment claims.  Please read my previous posts for an expanded view of this farce.  For anyone that cares, these “government statisticians” are NOT statisticians.  They are paid propagandists, and the American public should DEMAND their replacement.  It is NOT the government’s job, mandate, or design to LIE consistently to the American public!!!

I will continue to wager that next week the numbers will be revised UPWARD again.  Any takers, yet?

Unemployment claims (continued)….

September 2, 2011

Another week, another Initial Claims for Unemployment report.  And just like clock work, another UPWARD revision, which is NEGATIVE!!!  You can read my previous posts here, here, here, here and here.

Here is the article from FoxNews, the following is a quote:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications fell 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 409,000 last week, the first decline in three weeks.”

Please notice that applications fell 12,000.  If you have not read my previous posts, my complaints are that the media is attempting to make the numbers seem better than they are.  Last week the Initial Claims number was:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications rose 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 417,000, the highest level in five weeks.”

First, notice that last week the number was 417,000.  That is a bad number, correct?  But is it better than say, oh I don’t know, 421,000?  You know, the ACTUAL number!!  Because that is what the number was revised to this week, and this pattern has continued for as long as I have noticed, and this is 6 weeks for which I have linked.

Second, if we keep the original number, then claims would have ONLY dropped 8,000, NOT 12,000.  You see, by purposely under reporting the number EVERY week, they are able to imply that the initial claims are smaller than they actually are, while at the same time implying that the number is getting smaller faster (or growing slower) than it actual is.

Finally I have my favorite quote:

“Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the job market may be improving slightly.”

You see, it is “improving”… and yet when it is DEFINITELY getting worse, say the last three weeks, there was NO INDICATION that the employment picture was deteriorating!!

For anyone that has not been paying attention, historically, if the Initial Claims for unemployment is NOT LESS THAN 200,000, then the employment situation is NOT GETTING BETTER!!!  Said another way, the US economy, in good times, has been able to produce more than enough jobs, on a weekly basis, to absorb 200,000 of new claims and all of the new entrants to the jobs picture (this number includes people that are now 18, immigrants, new graduates, a house wife that decides she wants a job, etc.).  The US economy IS UNABLE to produce more jobs than that for a sustained period.

Also, now the media is NOT reporting the four week moving average.  Last week, with the moving average at 407,500,  I said:

“I will wager that the moving average RISES next week as well.”

Well, it did.  Here is a quote from the government:

“The 4-week moving average was 410,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 408,500”

Please notice that this 4-week moving average number is ALSO being revised UPWARD!!  It was revised from 407,500 to 408,500, before the new average is calculated at 410,250.  So here is ANOTHER statistic that is not being ACCURATELY reported by the government the first time.

I will still wager that this weeks number gets revised UPWARD next week.  Any takers???