Posts Tagged ‘BLS’

Monday Morning Humor…

December 9, 2013

This would be HILARIOUS if it weren’t true!!!!  The Bureau of Government Propaganda Labor “Statistics” (and I use the word “statistics” very loosely) has been telling lies for so long that they cannot keep the numbers in line anymore!!!  I have been saying for YEARS that the crap coming from the BLS, is a LIE to the American Public.  Let me give an example, USING THEIR OWN NUMBERS:

I am sure that everyone has heard how Obama has been doing such a great job that the “unemployment number” has been dropping for years.  Yeahhhhhhh……wooohhoooooo…everyone is happy and there was much rejoicing…/sarc off

Well let’s just dive into the Labor Propaganda Departments PUBLISHED NUMBERS.

First, Lets look at the employment numbers for the last year, this comes straight from their website (these are in thousands of people):

Adjusted (however they do the magic that they do)    

2012-06-01  155149                                                                  
2012-07-01  154995                                                                  
2012-08-01  154647                                                                  
2012-09-01  155056                                                                  
2012-10-01  155576                                                                  
2012-11-01  155319                                                                  
2012-12-01  155511                                                                    
2013-01-01  155654                                                                   
2013-02-01  155524                                                                   
2013-03-01  155028                                                                   
2013-04-01  155238                                                                   
2013-05-01  155658                                                                   
2013-06-01  155835                                                                   
2013-07-01  155798                                                                   
2013-08-01  155486                                                                   
2013-09-01  155559                                                                   
2013-10-01  154839                                                                  
2013-11-01  155294 

Unadjusted (REAL RAW NUMBERS)

2012-06-01  156385
2012-07-01  156526
2012-08-01  155255
2012-09-01  155075
2012-10-01  155779
2012-11-01  154953
2012-12-01  154904
2013-01-01  154794
2013-02-01  154727
2013-03-01  154512
2013-04-01  154739
2013-05-01  155734
2013-06-01  157089
2013-07-01  157196
2013-08-01  155971
2013-09-01  155536
2013-10-01  154918
2013-11-01  155046

This is the number of JOBS in the United States of America, meaning this is the WORKING POPULATION number, and I don’t care which column you look at.  Let’s examine the numbers and think about what they are saying.  I’ll do the example using the “adjusted” numbers so you can follow along.

In November of this year, 2013, there were 155,294,000 people working.  Which is MORE than October of this year by 455,000 JOBS…..HUH??  But the BLS said last friday that there were “total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000“….OK, WHATEVER???  I don’t care what they say…

Let’s keep going back further…for some reason March and April of this year also had lower total jobs, BUT we have to go back all the way to SEPTEMBER of 2012 to have a consistently SMALLER total jobs number!!!  Think about that.  There were MORE PEOPLE WORKING EVERY MONTH, for almost the entire previous 14 MONTHS, than worked last month. Do you think the unemployment rate should be decreasing??  The unadjusted numbers are even WORSE!!!

Let’s think about this number a little more….Last month there were 155,294,000 people in the USA that had a JOB, in October of 2012 there were 155,576,000 people in the USA that had a job.  Let’s call those 2 numbers equal, just for argument’s sake.  In 13 months, in the United States of America, do you think the absolute population of working people, these are people who would work if they could, went up down or stayed the same?  Hummmm, let’s see, what could have happened in those 13 months…..wait I got it….ALL of the High Schools and ALL of the Universities, Colleges, Trade Schools, etc would have had GRADUATIONS!!!  Some people would have retired and since they have done so well, they are lying on a beach somewhere sipping some alcoholic beverage, but the retirees do not offset the new entrants.  It is estimated that 16-20 million people entered the work force over those 13 months.  Let’s say the estimates are way off and the working population only increased by 10 million (or 5 million the real number doesn’t matter to me right now, so long as we agree that it is a large number over a few million), now do you think the unemployment rate should be decreasing like the Government is telling us and most of the MSM is parroting???  IF the increase is ONLY 3 Million new people looking for a new job, that would INCREASE the unemployment rate by about 2% (3,000,000/155,000,000).  It is all a LIE!!!!

We have not even talked about the quality of the jobs that “have been created”.  I’m not going to go into that right now but there are estimates that greater than 50% of all the “new jobs that have been created” are part-time.

This is just a SICK JOKE and President Obama is the one telling it!!!!

The BLS, the Obama Administration and the Weekly Unemployment Rate….

November 21, 2012

Obama has been re-elected as President!!!  Yeahhhhhhhhh!!  (Sarcasm off)

It looks like I will have AT LEAST 4 more years of PROPAGANDA coming out of the Bureau of Labor Propaganda “Statistics”!!!

So for my first post of the “New and Improved” Obama Regime let’s start with last weeks report:

Sandy Spurs Jump in Jobless Claims; Inflation Nudges Up” – CNBC

Super storm Sandy drove U.S. weekly jobless claims up to 439,000, while consumer prices rose slightly last month as higher rents and costlier food offset cheaper gas.”

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications increased by 78,000 mostly because a large number of applications were filed in states damaged by the storm.”

Wow!!  Up by 78,000 sounds BAD!! To a total of 439,000!!!  Wow, it IS bad!!  Just remember that NONE of these new jobless were ignored prior to the election, in order to get the “Official Unemployment Rate” below a magical 8%!!!  Nahhh, that would never happen.  And also remember, that it is ALL Hurricane Sandy’s fault, because nothing could ever be rightfully blamed on The One or his policies.

What happened this week, you ask?

Jobless Claims Still Taking Big Hit From Sandy Effects” – CNBC

See, still Hurricane Sandy’s fault.  What were the numbers, you ask?

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 41,000 to a seasonally adjusted 410,000, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.”

Wow!!  Dropped by 41,000!!!  That sounds good!!  But wait, I love how, NOWHERE in the article do they say what the “estimate” was last week.  If this weeks number is 410,000 + 41,000 drop equals 451,000 claims LAST WEEK!!!  But last week, they said that the rate ONLY INCREASED BY 78,000 to 439,000, and that sounded BAD.  IT WAS WORSE THAN THAT!!!  It actually increased by 90,000 claims last week!!!  That means that a 41,00 dropped number this week is SMALLER BY 12,000 (and will be EVEN SMALLER NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NUMBER IS REVISED UPWARD AGAIN).  So really, the drop this week is only 29,000 (the 12,000 has to be counted somewhere!!).

Also:

The four-week average of applications, a less volatile number, increased to 383,750.”

Anyone want to wager that this number WILL BE GOING UP next week??  And it is already ABOVE the 375,000 level “that some economists think signals a stable unemployment rate”.  Which means, that UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS RISING AGAIN. 

Sorry, to be the bearer of the news.

Happy Thanksgiving, be safe!!

Obama, the BLS, and October’s Unemployment Rate…

October 29, 2012

If you have not seen my previous posts and my ranting against the Propaganda Machine, that is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS) then check my archives.

I would have started this post out….And now for some “Monday Morning Humor”…..but this is NOT funny!!!

Here is an article from the Wall Street Journal:

Labor Department Says No Decision Yet on Whether to Delay Jobs Report

The Labor Department said Monday that it has yet to make a decision on whether to delay Friday’s closely-watched October employment report due to the effects from Hurricane Sandy.

Let me just say that, ANY “DELAY” in reporting the numbers, will have NOTHING TO DO WITH HURRICANE SANDY!!!  Or to put it another way, Hurricane Sandy will be JUST AS RESPONSIBLE FOR A DELAY in the reporting of unemployment numbers, as THE ANTI-MUSLIM FILM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MASSACRE IN BENGHAZI!!!

IF they delay the numbers, IT WILL BE BECAUSE THEY CANNOT SPIN THEM TO BENEFIT OBAMA.  Period.

I cannot find ONE instance where this reporting HAS EVER BEEN DELAYED.  IF they delay the reporting of these numbers, the people responsible will NEED TO BE FIRED AT A MINIMUM.  I’m not joking when I say these people should be tried for TREASON!!!

 

 

Now I want to highlight what I said last December:

Now for some cynicism.  I keep hearing the Democrats argue that they “want” an extension of the “extended unemployment benefits” and saying that the Republicans are fighting to let them expire unless we can “tax the rich more”.  Here is my view of the situation.  The Republicans are in a no-win situation, because the Democrats are going to let them expire, no matter what the Republicans offer.  Here is why.  IF the benefits expire, then everyone that is unemployed for more 9 months (I believe this is what the law will revert to, if I am incorrect please leave a comment), instead of the current temporary 99 weeks (which is just short of 2 years) will NO LONGER BE COUNTED IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.  IF this happens, the Unemployment Rate will have a sudden drop from the current 9+% rate.  This will make the numbers “look” like they improved, so President Obama can claim to be improving the economy.  He will get on TV everyday and say that he brought the unemployment rate down from 9+% (it was over 9% thanks to President Bush and the Republicans) to x%, and that is why he ”deserves” to remain President.  It would have come down sooner except the Republicans in Congress stopped him from helping out sooner.”

The question is: Will the “unemployment rate” dip below 8%??  If it does, this is ALL you will see on any television.

BLS and the Weekly Unemplyment number…

October 19, 2012

I am sure that everyone has heard about the ABSOLUTE PROPAGANDA from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that occurred last week.

If you have not:

U.S. jobless rate tumbles to near four-year low” – CNBC

US unemployment below 8 pct, first time since 2009” – CNBC

Here are some quotes from the articles:

The U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 7.8 percent in September and reached its lowest level since President Barack Obama took office, providing a boost to his re-election bid.”

Or

The U.S. unemployment rate dropped below 8 percent for the first time since the month President Barack Obama took office, a surprising lift for both the economy and his re-election hopes in the final weeks of the campaign.”

First let me say, YES it was unexpected!!!!!!  It was UNEXPECTED because it was NOT TRUE!!!!  Many people called BS on the numbers but ALL of the Obama surrogates claimed that it was a “good number”.  ALL of the MSM printed articles with headlines proclaiming that everything must be getting better because look at the unemployment numbers.  That is until some well-known people started questioning the numbers.  Then the BLS said that one state did not report its numbers.  Huh???  This number is reported EVERY week!!!  There was nothing new last week!!!  Oh wait…this was the LAST MONTHLY JOBS REPORT THAT WOULD MATTER BEFORE THE ELECTION!!!  So, let me see…..one state did not report its numbers….the number was THE BEST IN ALMOST 4 YEARS….It brought the “unemployment rate” down below 8% FOR THE FIRST TIME UNDER PRESIDENT OBAMA…..and we are just supposed to ACCEPT THE PROPAGANDA???

The October jobs report comes out Nov. 2, four days before the election, so Friday’s report provided one of the final snapshots of the economy as undecided voters make up their minds.”

Now we get to this week:

Weekly Jobless Claims Drop Proves to Be Short-Lived” – CNBC

Weekly applications for U.S. unemployment benefits jumped 46,000 last week to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the highest in four months

If you average the two weeks, you get an INCREASE in applications of 8,000 per week (46,000 more minus 30,000 less divide by 2 weeks) NOT INCLUDING ADJUSTMENTS, which are ALREADY 3,000 MORE for last week and I will bet anyone that this weeks will be revised higher as well.  Any takers??  So let me repeat, THERE WAS NO MIRACULOUS RECOVERY LAST WEEK THAT BROUGHT THE REAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOWN BELOW 8%.  Anyone that believes these numbers is delusional!!!

What state could have messed this up so bad??  Last week, it was speculated that the state was California.  California denied it.  This week the BLS CONFIRMS THAT IT WAS CALIFORNIA!!  No big deal you say??  What if the “Official” that is in charge of reporting the numbers DONATES THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT TO OBAMA??

Calif. official whose agency under-reported unemployment stats was Obama campaign donor” – The Daily Caller (PLEASE READ THIS ENTIRE ARTICLE)

On Oct. 11, the federal government reported that weekly jobless claims were down significantly, suggesting a dramatic national increase in economic growth and a steep decline in layoffs.

The good news for the Obama administration spread quickly, with outlets like CNN and Bloomberg declaring, “Jobless claims fall to four-year low.”

But within hours, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Labor Department analysts announced that one major state had failed to fully document jobless claims. They declined to name the state.”

Speculation among market watchers and economists initially focused on California, but the state’s Employment Development Department strongly denied that it had failed to properly document the data.

“Reports that California failed to fully report data to the U.S. Department of Labor, as required, are incorrect and irresponsible,” California Employment Development Department director Pam Harris said in a statement last week. “The California Employment Development Department, which administers the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program in the state, has reported all UI claims data and submitted the data on time.”

Early Thursday, the federal government finally revealed that California had, in fact, under-reported jobless data, skewing the national jobless claims results.”

According to campaign disclosure records, Morgenstern donated $4,600 — the maximum amount allowed by law — to the 2008 Obama campaign, beginning with a $1,000 contribution to Obama for America in February 2008. Morgenstern followed up that donation with a $1,300 contribution in June, and then a $2,300 payout in early September.”

Say whatever you want about “conspiracy theories”, sometimes STUPID PEOPLE TRY TO DO STUPID THINGS!!!  I cannot remember ANY WEEK WHERE A STATE HAS MISSED THE DEADLINE!!  It just so happens that the one week where it would help Obama, it happens.  Bull Sh*&!!!!

These people belong in prison for TREASON!!!  All of their pensions should be confiscated!!!  If there are no consequences to STEALING elections, the mischief will continue!!

The BLS and the weekly Unemployment Report…

September 20, 2012

I have written many posts on this subject here and here are links to the last two posts. 

The last post noticed that the Wall Street Journal was FINALLY noticing the PROPAGANDA that is the weekly report from the BLS.  Now, I have found another reference at ZeroHedge, and the following quote says everything that I want to say:

“Because the ever data-massaging BLS was kind enough to revise last week’s print upward (for the 86th week in a row)…”

The 86th week in a row!!!  MORE than a year and a half the Bureau of Labor Propaganda “Statistics” has INCORRECTLY reported the numbers to the American Public in the same direction, that benefits the President.  If you need any other proof that these are NOT statisticians, but paid shills, there is nothing I can say.

The weekly Unemployment Rate, and MISINFORMATION….

August 23, 2012

When are “REPORTERS” going to learn about that, which they report on??

Today is the date for another propaganda piece report from the Bureau of Labor “Statistics”, and I just can’t stand it sometimes.  Today we get the piece as distributed by REUTERS, a supposed intelligent reporting agency, through CNBC, a BUSINESS reporting company!!!  It is hard for me to believe that these people are COMPLETE MORONS, but my only other option is that they are doing this on purpose which makes them a part of the government propaganda machine.  There are NO other options.  AND, this is where most people get their information. SO SAD. 

What is the problem you ask?  Here is the lead paragraph:

“The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, while a separate reading on U.S. manufacturing activity showed a slight improvement in August.”

Unexpectedly??  Seriously??  Where do these people live??  What are they looking at??  Where do they get their information??  Do they not look around??  Have they tried to get a job recently??  I have!!

Let me just provide a short list to the impediments to hiring ANYONE, if you are a business or thinking of starting a business:

     1.     The tax cliff that, as of now, is coming in 4 short months.  At this point NO ONE, including the President, the possible new President, the Congress nor the Senate KNOWS how this WILL BE resolved.  NO ONE!!  People have ideas.  But which ones will be attempted, is a guess, at this point.

     2.     A presidential election, that will decide, maybe, how the tax cliff will be dealt with.  I say maybe, because even after the election, it may NOT be dealt with until after the fact.

     3.    ALL of the forms, fees, permits, requirements, regulations that are required to do ANYTHING.

     4.     The issues in Europe.  (They WILL affect the USA, whether you want to believe it or not)

     5.     The issues in the Middle East.  (Ditto)

     6.     Inflation, just because the “government propaganda machine” says there is no inflation, does not make it so.  The price of the things that Americans use every day (gas, food, housing, repairs, etc.) are going UP.  In most cases, much faster than the “government” says!  I fear that the Drought of 2012 is going to accelerate these increases.

     7.     No one is buying ANYTHING EXTRA.  America is in a just hang on mindset right now.

I could go on.  But, you should get the picture.  I understand that there are always unknowns when starting a business, or hiring someone new, but IMHO, todays unknowns ONLY have NEGATIVES associated with them.  In other words, when the problem is solved, things are still going to be BAD or things are going to be WORSE.  Until people are confident that things could be getting better, they will not BUY ANYTHING EXTRA.

Then I get to a point in the article that gives me hope that they might tell the truth, IF they would only INVESTIGATE the FACTS:

“A total of 5.59 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits under all programs in the week ended Aug. 4, down 109,812 from the prior week.”

WHY is it “DOWN 109,812 from the prior week”??  Is it because they were hired??  Unfortunately the answer to that question is NO!!!  In the last year the government “statisticians” have removed 1.3 MILLION people from the total!!  With 109,812 in the last week alone.  These people have reached the end of their unemployment benefits, so they are no longer counted.  This has ARTIFICIALLY PUSHED THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE LOWER!!  The actual unemployment rate is above 10%.  The number of people being removed from the count is ACCELERATING.

Now I want to highlight what I said last December:

Now for some cynicism.  I keep hearing the Democrats argue that they “want” an extension of the “extended unemployment benefits” and saying that the Republicans are fighting to let them expire unless we can “tax the rich more”.  Here is my view of the situation.  The Republicans are in a no-win situation, because the Democrats are going to let them expire, no matter what the Republicans offer.  Here is why.  IF the benefits expire, then everyone that is unemployed for more 9 months (I believe this is what the law will revert to, if I am incorrect please leave a comment), instead of the current temporary 99 weeks (which is just short of 2 years) will NO LONGER BE COUNTED IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.  IF this happens, the Unemployment Rate will have a sudden drop from the current 9+% rate.  This will make the numbers “look” like they improved, so President Obama can claim to be improving the economy.  He will get on TV everyday and say that he brought the unemployment rate down from 9+% (it was over 9% thanks to President Bush and the Republicans) to x%, and that is why he ”deserves” to remain President.  It would have come down sooner except the Republicans in Congress stopped him from helping out sooner.”

The question is: Will the “unemployment rate” dip below 8%??  If it does, this is ALL you will see on any television.

Initial Claims for Unemployment remain below 400,000, BARELY…

November 23, 2011

This week will be a quick one….

Last week I said:

“This week I will bet that the TRUE number is STILL ABOVE 390,000 at 391,000.”

And this week the report is (from CNBC):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed to a seasonally adjusted 393,000 from an upwardly revised 391,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.”

And from FoxNews:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications for unemployment aid rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 393,000.”

That makes ANOTHER PERFECT estimation on my part, and ANOTHER UPWARD revision to the Propaganda Labor Department.  Here is another quote from CNBC:

“Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 390,000 from the previously reported 388,000.”

If Reuters would like to hire me as a consultant, I can make BETTER forecasts!!!

Another quote from FoxNews:

“Even so, weekly applications would need to stay below 375,000 consistently to push down the unemployment rate significantly.”

They still have not answered my question about the 375,000 number………or is it 350,000???

I will wager that this weeks number gets REVISED UPWARD to 395,000.  Any takers?

Initial Claims for Unemployment FINALLY remain below 400,000…

November 17, 2011

Initial Claims for Unemployment FINALLY remain below 400,000, but they are STILL high at (from CNBC):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the Labor Department said, from an upwardly revised 393,000 the prior week.”

What did I say last week:

“I will bet that the TRUE number is 393,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment.”

What??  I have given another PERFECT estimation of the weeks claims!!!  How many times can you point to, where the Government Propagandists have told you the TRUE number??  That’s right…..ZERO!!!  And when is the last time that the Government Propagandists “estimated” a number that they had to revise downward??  I cannot find ONCE since Obama has been President!!!

This week I will bet that the TRUE number is STILL ABOVE 390,000 at 391,000.  Any takers??

By the way we are STILL above the number that signifies a reduction in the overall unemployment percentage, which STILL remains ABOVE 9.0% according to the Government Propagandists.

The following is a quote from the FoxNews report:

“Applications need to consistently drop below 375,000 to signal sustained job gains. They haven’t been that low since February.”

Let’s see….March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November….that makes 9 MONTHS, since the initial claims for unemployment have been at the UPPER RANGE to show “sustained job gains”!!!  And anyone who has read my previous posts knows that the 375,000 could very well be 350,000, which means it is LONGER THAN 9 MONTHS!!!  The jobs picture REMAINS BLEAK and there are NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT YET!!

Initial Claims for Unemployment FINALLY drop below 400,000…

November 10, 2011

Remember last week the Government propagandists said:

“The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 397,000

And Last week I said:

“I will bet that this weeks number will be revised UPWARD to at least 400,000.  In fact I will bet that the number comes in at 401,000.”

And this week the government propagandists say, from FoxNews:

“The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped to a seasonally adjusted 390,000.”

What??  No mention of ANY adjustments??  Could it be that the “statisticians” FINALLY got something correct??  From CNBC:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 390,000 in the week ended Nov. 5, slightly below the 400,000 that analysts polled by Reuters had expected. The government revised its estimate for claims during the prior week to 400,000 from 397,000.”

Damn!!!  I thought we were finally getting the TRUTH from the Government.  It looks like my estimate was off by ANOTHER 1,000 applicants to the upside.  I’m starting to think that maybe I am too pessimistic, BUT I am still closer with my estimates than the Government propagandists.

So this week the number is 390,000.  Anyone want to wager that this number is revised UPWARD next week?  I will bet that the TRUE number is 393,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment.  Any takers??

I am also asking FoxNews to update their erroneous article from last week.  I feel that they need to CHANGE the title to the article:

Unemployment Claims Fall Below 400,000 for the First Time in Five Weeks

Blatantly FALSE!!!  Until next week, when we revise the “government’s” numbers UPWARD once again, be safe.

Initial Claims for Unemployment…

November 3, 2011

Well, another Thursday, another day that the Initial Claims for Unemployment numbers get revised UPWARD!!  Last week I said:

“This week I will wager that the initial claims for unemployment is closer to 405,000 than 402,000.”

And this week the unemployment number report says, from FoxNews:

“The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 397,000, the lowest level in five weeks.”

So, let’s see how this works.  397,000 + 9,000 equals 406,000!!!  Last weeks number was revised UPWARD to 406,000.  I missed the number by 1,000, again.  This time to the downside.

I also love how Fox News has the title to their article:

“Unemployment Claims Fall Below 400,000 for the First Time in Five Weeks”

Anyone want to bet??  I will bet that this weeks number will be revised UPWARD to at least 400,000.  In fact I will bet that the number comes in at 401,000.  Any takers??