Posts Tagged ‘labor department’

The Government, Obama and the Unemployment Rate…

May 3, 2012

I hope this continues.  It look like the Media has finally started to see the evidence that I have been pointing out for years.  That is, that the Labor Department and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are PROPAGANDA DEPARTMENTS!!!  Here is the title of an article from Fox News:

Is the government cooking the books on job numbers?

Finally, people are waking up!!  Here is a great quote from the article:

For 59 of the last 60 weeks, those numbers have been revised higher after the fact.”

Go ahead and read that again.  59 out of 60 weeks the government propagandists have reported a number that is WRONG to the downside, in order to make the economy look better than it truly is!!  That is EVERY WEEK for MORE THAN A YEAR!!!

I used to give an update every week on the reported numbers and the “adjustments” that were being made.  It has been going on for SO LONG that even I got tired of doing it EVERY week!!!  Go back and look at my posts if you need to see this happening, I have supplied plenty of links.

They can say whatever they want about the propaganda, but they cannot dispute the FACTS!!  There are ONLY two possibilities for the WRONG NUMBERS:

     1.  The departments truly have become propaganda departments and partisan politicians are responsible for blatantly lying to the American Public, or

     2.  The “statisticians” that are supplying the numbers are grossly incompetent and incapable of performing their JOB DUTIES!!

There can be NO OTHER explanation!!  Either way, someone needs to be held ACCOUNTABLE!!

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Initial Claims for Unemployment…

April 5, 2012

I was NOT going to write about unemployment for a while, after last week’s summary.  BUT, sometimes I get so frustrated with “reporting” that I have to do something.

Here is an article from CNBC, and I want to rip apart the HEADLINE and the FIRST sentence!!

First, the headline.  The headline reads:

“Weekly Jobless Claims Stay on Downward Drift, Fall 6,000″

“Downward drift”??  What are you talking about??  You cannot be serious!!  Here is a quote from the same article giving the “FACTS” (and I use that term loosely):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 357,000, the lowest level since April 2008, the Labor Department said on Thursday.”

357,000!!!  Remember that number, we’ll come back to it later.  Now, let’s look back and see what the Liar Propaganda Labor Department said previously:

Last week:

“The Labor Department says weekly unemployment benefit applications fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 359,000.”

Which indicates that last week’s number has been REVISED UPWARD AGAIN, this time by 4,000 claims(357,000+6,000=363,000, not 359,000, but THEY said 359,000).

The week before they said:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the lowest level since February 2008, the Labor Department said.”

BUT WAIT!!!  Didn’t they say that we were “staying on a downward drift”??  Let me think about this, two weeks ago THEY said we were at 348,000, then we were at 363,000, and last week we went down for ONE WHOLE WEEK to 357,000, that is a “downward drift”??  Are you serious??

Now , the first sentence:

“The number of Americans lining up for new jobless benefits fell to the lowest level in nearly four years last week, according to a government report that showed ongoing healing in the labor market.”

WHAT??  This is COMPLETELY UNTRUE!!!  Oh wait, let me read that again.  “…fell to the lowest level in NEARLY four YEARS last week…”  Oh, I see!!!  2 weeks is really, almost, kinda like, real close to 4 YEARS!!!  NO!!!  This is WRONG it is not even CLOSE!!!

Let’s go ALL THE WAY BACK to March 8th and see what the Labor Department said:

“Jobless claims in the U.S. rose to the highest level in five weeks, climbing by 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 362,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 354,000 from 351,000.”

If I could highlight that 354,000 more I would, because the last time I checked 354,000 was LESS THAN 357,000!!!  And that was a REVISED NUMBER!!! 

What do you say about your “reporting” CNBC?  Are we going to get an apology for this out right LIE??  It is a sad state of the world when the propagandists can not even get the story right!!!

Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving, Take 2…(continued)

February 2, 2012

Sometimes I just have to laugh.  Here is the headline from FoxNews:

“Fewer seek unemployment aid as job market improves”

Really??  Said as a matter of fact?? Or how about this from the same article:

“When applications stay consistently below 375,000, it usually signals that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

When they say stay below 375,000, do they mean for ONE WHOLE WEEK??  Because last week it was NOT below 375,000!!!

And here is the headline from CNBC:

“Weekly Claims Still Falling; Productivity Gains Easing”

STILL falling??  Doesn’t that imply that the number has been falling for at least two weeks??

Here is what I said last week:

“This week I will wager that the number is revised UPWARD again to at least 380,000.”

And the verdict is (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s figure was revised up to 379,000 from the previously reported 377,000.”

Missed by ANOTHER 1,000 jobs!!!  And again I missed to the upside, this time.  Which means that my estimates miss to BOTH sides of the actual number, so when combined MY estimates are MUCH MORE ACCURATE than the government propagandists!!!

So just to summarize, two weeks ago the number was 356,000.  Then last week the number was 379,000.  Wow, that looks like the number is getting bigger, or RISING!!  As opposed to STILL falling!!!  This week the number is:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department said.”

367,000!!!  Not only is the number NOT “still falling”, but it is STILL larger than it was two weeks ago.  This week I will wager that this number is revised UPWARD, AGAIN, to at least 370,000.  Any takers??

Initial Claims for Unemployment, the expected Holiday Hangover!!!

January 12, 2012

Last week I said:

“Hey FoxNews, I will wager that this week’s number will be revised UPWARD to at least 375,000!!! “

And this week the news is (from CNBC):

“The Labor Department said Thursday that applications jumped by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 399,000, the most in six weeks.”

And (from FoxNews):

“Weekly applications rose by 24,000 to a seasonally adjusted 399,000, the Labor Department said Thursday”

Let’s see, I have to do some math.  399,000 – 24,000 equals…..carry the one…. 375,000.  OMG, another PERFECT estimate by yours truly.  See, government propagandists statisticians of the NON-Labor Department, it is NOT that difficult!!!  Oh, wait!!  I forgot you guys are trying to make it look better for Dear Leader, and do not care about the TRUTH.  My bad!!  I still say that I could INCREASE the accuracy of your forecasts, for a price that is.

More from FoxNews:

“Applications for weekly unemployment benefits spiked last week, largely because companies let go of thousands of workers after the holiday season.”

As a side note, FoxNews, it is only a “spike” if the next number is lower (closer to 375,000 would be a symmetrical “spike”).  Would you want to wager that next week the number is HIGHER than 399,000??  And remember what I said a month ago:

Why am I so CRITICAL with the title of this post??  Well, it goes something like this.  The month is December.  Every year businesses hire more people (TEMPORARILY) to cover for the holiday rush of retail activity.  Did you know that most of a retailers profit comes during the holidays, and the rest of the year is lucky to be break even?  Do not forget the Christmas Tree lots, the wrapping services, the holiday light installations, etc.  These TEMPORARY jobs remove people from the unemployed list.  I will hold off any final judgement on the sustainability of the employment rate until after the new year.  Hopefully, the unemployment rate continues to improve.  At this point I am a skeptic!!”

Looks like I was correct in being SKEPTICAL!!  This week I will wager that next week this 399,000 number for Initial Claims gets revised, UPWARD AGAIN, to 403,000, which is above the TOXIC 400,000 level!!  Any takers??

Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving continued…

January 5, 2012

Here is what I said last week about the initial claims for unemployment:

“I will wager that this number gets revised UPWARD again to at least 384,000.”

And this week the adjust is….. (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 387,000 from the previously reported 381,000.”

You see, this “adjustment” is the LARGEST amount, 6,000, since I started pointing out that the Labor Department and the Bureau of “Labor Statistics” (ROFLMAO……sorry I could not help my self) should be renamed the PROPAGANDA Department.  Why would this be the LARGEST adjustment, you ask yourself??  I can think of at least three GOOD reasons why the Government and OBAMA would want this number to appear “better” than it actually is!!!  And do NOT forget that the previous week the “adjustment” was smaller than normal.

1.  To make the American people feel better over the CHRISTMAS Holiday Season

2.  To close out the year 2011 on a less negative outlook, and

3.  The Iowa Caucus was this week.  If President Obama can blunt some of the criticism from the GOP, well that would be a Bonus!!

Call me a cynic.

This week the numbers are (from FoxNews):

“The Labor Department says weekly applications dropped 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 372,000 last week.”

and my favorite quote from FoxNews:

“When applications drop below 375,000 — consistently — they generally signal that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate.”

Hey FoxNews, I will wager that this week’s number will be revised UPWARD to at least 375,000!!!  Do you want to take that bet?? 

Since that would make two weeks in a row that the rate is at least 375,000, does that mean that hiring is NOT strong and we should NOT expect a reduction in the unemployment rate??  Not only that, but last week, the number was WELL ABOVE 375,000!!!  By the way, you still have not answered my question about the 350,000 versus the 375,000 numbers!!  Which is it?

Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving continued…

December 30, 2011

Is this the first crack in the propaganda???

Here is what I said last week about the initial claims for unemployment:

“I will wager that next week this number will be revised UPWARD to 368,000, NO change.”

And this week the government propagandists “statisticians” say (from CNBC):

“The prior week’s claims data was revised up to 366,000 from the previously reported 364,000.”

Damn, missed by ANOTHER 2,000 claims, this time to the upside.  See how a REAL statistician makes errors to both sides of an estimation.  Some months I ma above the number, some months I am below the number, and some months I am just right.  My error per month is MUCH LOWER than the government propagandists, and my overall error when taken over a longer time period almost disappears.  UNLIKE the government propagandists who have been off TO THE DOWNSIDE (which makes the unemployment numbers “appear” to be better than they are) almost ALL OF THE TIME!!!

Then we get this from FoxNews, who is supposed to be “anti-Obama”:

“But a measure of applications over the past month fell to a three-and-a-half-year low, an indication that hiring could pick up.”

Here’s a question.  IF they are anti-Obama WHY would they even try to be optimistic??  IF someone has a good answer, please share.

This week the “estimation” is :

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 15,000 to a seasonally adjusted 381,000, the Labor Department said.”

I will wager that this number gets revised UPWARD again to at least 384,000.  Any takers??

Happy New Year everyone, let’s hope that the economy gets better, for the American people, in 2012.

Weekly Unemployment claims SOAR above 400,000 AGAIN!!!

December 1, 2011

This week I will start with the quotes (from CNBC):

“Weekly applications for unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 402,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.”

(and from FoxNews):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed to a seasonally adjusted 402,000 from an upwardly revised 396,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.”

And last week I said:

“I will wager that this weeks number gets REVISED UPWARD to 395,000.”

I missed it by 1,000 claims to the downside, and the government propagandists “statisticians” missed to the DOWNSIDE AGAIN.  Really??  I think I have proven that it is NOT that difficult to make a better estimate.  As, I have said before, IF they were true “statisticians” as opposed to a government mouthpiece they would have errors to both sides of the final number.  As it stands, I cannot find a time during the Obama Administration that they have had to revise their “estimate” downward.

I will wager that this weeks number will AGAIN be revised UPWARD and will be 405,000.  Any takers??

Also FoxNews says this week:

“New claims for unemployment benefits rose unexpectedly last week, popping above 400,000 for the first time in just over a month and reinforcing the view that the battered labor market was healing only slowly.”

but last week FoxNews said:

“Even so, weekly applications would need to stay below 375,000 consistently to push down the unemployment rate significantly.”

Well, which is it FoxNews??  Is 400,000 a labor market that is “healing slowly”?  Or does it need to “stay below 375,000 consistently”??  I won’t even ask about the 350,000.

Now for some cynicism.  I keep hearing the Democrats argue that they “want” an extension of the “extended unemployment benefits” and saying that the Republicans are fighting to let them expire unless we can “tax the rich more”.  Here is my view of the situation.  The Republicans are in a no win situation, because the Democrats are going to let them expire, no matter what the Republicans offer.  Here is why.  IF the benefits expire, then everyone that is unemployed for more 9 months (I believe this is what the law will revert to, if I am incorrect please leave a comment), instead of the current temporary 99 weeks (which is just short of 2 years) will NO LONGER BE COUNTED IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.  IF this happens, the Unemployment Rate will have a sudden drop from the current 9+% rate.  This will make the numbers “look” like they improved, so President Obama can claim to be improving the economy.  He will get on TV everyday and say that he brought the unemployment rate down from 9+% (it was over 9% thanks to President Bush and the Republicans) to x%, and that is why he “deserves” to remain President.  It would have come down sooner except the Republicans in Congress stopped him from helping out sooner.

Let me know what you think.

Initial Claims for Unemployment remain below 400,000, BARELY…

November 23, 2011

This week will be a quick one….

Last week I said:

“This week I will bet that the TRUE number is STILL ABOVE 390,000 at 391,000.”

And this week the report is (from CNBC):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits climbed to a seasonally adjusted 393,000 from an upwardly revised 391,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.”

And from FoxNews:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications for unemployment aid rose 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 393,000.”

That makes ANOTHER PERFECT estimation on my part, and ANOTHER UPWARD revision to the Propaganda Labor Department.  Here is another quote from CNBC:

“Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 390,000 from the previously reported 388,000.”

If Reuters would like to hire me as a consultant, I can make BETTER forecasts!!!

Another quote from FoxNews:

“Even so, weekly applications would need to stay below 375,000 consistently to push down the unemployment rate significantly.”

They still have not answered my question about the 375,000 number………or is it 350,000???

I will wager that this weeks number gets REVISED UPWARD to 395,000.  Any takers?

Initial Claims for Unemployment FINALLY remain below 400,000…

November 17, 2011

Initial Claims for Unemployment FINALLY remain below 400,000, but they are STILL high at (from CNBC):

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 388,000, the Labor Department said, from an upwardly revised 393,000 the prior week.”

What did I say last week:

“I will bet that the TRUE number is 393,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment.”

What??  I have given another PERFECT estimation of the weeks claims!!!  How many times can you point to, where the Government Propagandists have told you the TRUE number??  That’s right…..ZERO!!!  And when is the last time that the Government Propagandists “estimated” a number that they had to revise downward??  I cannot find ONCE since Obama has been President!!!

This week I will bet that the TRUE number is STILL ABOVE 390,000 at 391,000.  Any takers??

By the way we are STILL above the number that signifies a reduction in the overall unemployment percentage, which STILL remains ABOVE 9.0% according to the Government Propagandists.

The following is a quote from the FoxNews report:

“Applications need to consistently drop below 375,000 to signal sustained job gains. They haven’t been that low since February.”

Let’s see….March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November….that makes 9 MONTHS, since the initial claims for unemployment have been at the UPPER RANGE to show “sustained job gains”!!!  And anyone who has read my previous posts knows that the 375,000 could very well be 350,000, which means it is LONGER THAN 9 MONTHS!!!  The jobs picture REMAINS BLEAK and there are NO SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT YET!!

Initial Claims for Unemployment FINALLY drop below 400,000…

November 10, 2011

Remember last week the Government propagandists said:

“The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 397,000

And Last week I said:

“I will bet that this weeks number will be revised UPWARD to at least 400,000.  In fact I will bet that the number comes in at 401,000.”

And this week the government propagandists say, from FoxNews:

“The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications dropped to a seasonally adjusted 390,000.”

What??  No mention of ANY adjustments??  Could it be that the “statisticians” FINALLY got something correct??  From CNBC:

“Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 390,000 in the week ended Nov. 5, slightly below the 400,000 that analysts polled by Reuters had expected. The government revised its estimate for claims during the prior week to 400,000 from 397,000.”

Damn!!!  I thought we were finally getting the TRUTH from the Government.  It looks like my estimate was off by ANOTHER 1,000 applicants to the upside.  I’m starting to think that maybe I am too pessimistic, BUT I am still closer with my estimates than the Government propagandists.

So this week the number is 390,000.  Anyone want to wager that this number is revised UPWARD next week?  I will bet that the TRUE number is 393,000 Initial Claims for Unemployment.  Any takers??

I am also asking FoxNews to update their erroneous article from last week.  I feel that they need to CHANGE the title to the article:

Unemployment Claims Fall Below 400,000 for the First Time in Five Weeks

Blatantly FALSE!!!  Until next week, when we revise the “government’s” numbers UPWARD once again, be safe.