Posts Tagged ‘unemployment rate’

Monday Morning Humor…

December 9, 2013

This would be HILARIOUS if it weren’t true!!!!  The Bureau of Government Propaganda Labor “Statistics” (and I use the word “statistics” very loosely) has been telling lies for so long that they cannot keep the numbers in line anymore!!!  I have been saying for YEARS that the crap coming from the BLS, is a LIE to the American Public.  Let me give an example, USING THEIR OWN NUMBERS:

I am sure that everyone has heard how Obama has been doing such a great job that the “unemployment number” has been dropping for years.  Yeahhhhhhh……wooohhoooooo…everyone is happy and there was much rejoicing…/sarc off

Well let’s just dive into the Labor Propaganda Departments PUBLISHED NUMBERS.

First, Lets look at the employment numbers for the last year, this comes straight from their website (these are in thousands of people):

Adjusted (however they do the magic that they do)    

2012-06-01  155149                                                                  
2012-07-01  154995                                                                  
2012-08-01  154647                                                                  
2012-09-01  155056                                                                  
2012-10-01  155576                                                                  
2012-11-01  155319                                                                  
2012-12-01  155511                                                                    
2013-01-01  155654                                                                   
2013-02-01  155524                                                                   
2013-03-01  155028                                                                   
2013-04-01  155238                                                                   
2013-05-01  155658                                                                   
2013-06-01  155835                                                                   
2013-07-01  155798                                                                   
2013-08-01  155486                                                                   
2013-09-01  155559                                                                   
2013-10-01  154839                                                                  
2013-11-01  155294 

Unadjusted (REAL RAW NUMBERS)

2012-06-01  156385
2012-07-01  156526
2012-08-01  155255
2012-09-01  155075
2012-10-01  155779
2012-11-01  154953
2012-12-01  154904
2013-01-01  154794
2013-02-01  154727
2013-03-01  154512
2013-04-01  154739
2013-05-01  155734
2013-06-01  157089
2013-07-01  157196
2013-08-01  155971
2013-09-01  155536
2013-10-01  154918
2013-11-01  155046

This is the number of JOBS in the United States of America, meaning this is the WORKING POPULATION number, and I don’t care which column you look at.  Let’s examine the numbers and think about what they are saying.  I’ll do the example using the “adjusted” numbers so you can follow along.

In November of this year, 2013, there were 155,294,000 people working.  Which is MORE than October of this year by 455,000 JOBS…..HUH??  But the BLS said last friday that there were “total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 203,000“….OK, WHATEVER???  I don’t care what they say…

Let’s keep going back further…for some reason March and April of this year also had lower total jobs, BUT we have to go back all the way to SEPTEMBER of 2012 to have a consistently SMALLER total jobs number!!!  Think about that.  There were MORE PEOPLE WORKING EVERY MONTH, for almost the entire previous 14 MONTHS, than worked last month. Do you think the unemployment rate should be decreasing??  The unadjusted numbers are even WORSE!!!

Let’s think about this number a little more….Last month there were 155,294,000 people in the USA that had a JOB, in October of 2012 there were 155,576,000 people in the USA that had a job.  Let’s call those 2 numbers equal, just for argument’s sake.  In 13 months, in the United States of America, do you think the absolute population of working people, these are people who would work if they could, went up down or stayed the same?  Hummmm, let’s see, what could have happened in those 13 months…..wait I got it….ALL of the High Schools and ALL of the Universities, Colleges, Trade Schools, etc would have had GRADUATIONS!!!  Some people would have retired and since they have done so well, they are lying on a beach somewhere sipping some alcoholic beverage, but the retirees do not offset the new entrants.  It is estimated that 16-20 million people entered the work force over those 13 months.  Let’s say the estimates are way off and the working population only increased by 10 million (or 5 million the real number doesn’t matter to me right now, so long as we agree that it is a large number over a few million), now do you think the unemployment rate should be decreasing like the Government is telling us and most of the MSM is parroting???  IF the increase is ONLY 3 Million new people looking for a new job, that would INCREASE the unemployment rate by about 2% (3,000,000/155,000,000).  It is all a LIE!!!!

We have not even talked about the quality of the jobs that “have been created”.  I’m not going to go into that right now but there are estimates that greater than 50% of all the “new jobs that have been created” are part-time.

This is just a SICK JOKE and President Obama is the one telling it!!!!

The BLS, the Obama Administration and the Weekly Unemployment Rate….

November 21, 2012

Obama has been re-elected as President!!!  Yeahhhhhhhhh!!  (Sarcasm off)

It looks like I will have AT LEAST 4 more years of PROPAGANDA coming out of the Bureau of Labor Propaganda “Statistics”!!!

So for my first post of the “New and Improved” Obama Regime let’s start with last weeks report:

Sandy Spurs Jump in Jobless Claims; Inflation Nudges Up” – CNBC

Super storm Sandy drove U.S. weekly jobless claims up to 439,000, while consumer prices rose slightly last month as higher rents and costlier food offset cheaper gas.”

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications increased by 78,000 mostly because a large number of applications were filed in states damaged by the storm.”

Wow!!  Up by 78,000 sounds BAD!! To a total of 439,000!!!  Wow, it IS bad!!  Just remember that NONE of these new jobless were ignored prior to the election, in order to get the “Official Unemployment Rate” below a magical 8%!!!  Nahhh, that would never happen.  And also remember, that it is ALL Hurricane Sandy’s fault, because nothing could ever be rightfully blamed on The One or his policies.

What happened this week, you ask?

Jobless Claims Still Taking Big Hit From Sandy Effects” – CNBC

See, still Hurricane Sandy’s fault.  What were the numbers, you ask?

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 41,000 to a seasonally adjusted 410,000, the Labor Department said on Wednesday.”

Wow!!  Dropped by 41,000!!!  That sounds good!!  But wait, I love how, NOWHERE in the article do they say what the “estimate” was last week.  If this weeks number is 410,000 + 41,000 drop equals 451,000 claims LAST WEEK!!!  But last week, they said that the rate ONLY INCREASED BY 78,000 to 439,000, and that sounded BAD.  IT WAS WORSE THAN THAT!!!  It actually increased by 90,000 claims last week!!!  That means that a 41,00 dropped number this week is SMALLER BY 12,000 (and will be EVEN SMALLER NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NUMBER IS REVISED UPWARD AGAIN).  So really, the drop this week is only 29,000 (the 12,000 has to be counted somewhere!!).

Also:

The four-week average of applications, a less volatile number, increased to 383,750.”

Anyone want to wager that this number WILL BE GOING UP next week??  And it is already ABOVE the 375,000 level “that some economists think signals a stable unemployment rate”.  Which means, that UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS RISING AGAIN. 

Sorry, to be the bearer of the news.

Happy Thanksgiving, be safe!!

Obama, the BLS, and October’s Unemployment Rate…

October 29, 2012

If you have not seen my previous posts and my ranting against the Propaganda Machine, that is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (the BLS) then check my archives.

I would have started this post out….And now for some “Monday Morning Humor”…..but this is NOT funny!!!

Here is an article from the Wall Street Journal:

Labor Department Says No Decision Yet on Whether to Delay Jobs Report

The Labor Department said Monday that it has yet to make a decision on whether to delay Friday’s closely-watched October employment report due to the effects from Hurricane Sandy.

Let me just say that, ANY “DELAY” in reporting the numbers, will have NOTHING TO DO WITH HURRICANE SANDY!!!  Or to put it another way, Hurricane Sandy will be JUST AS RESPONSIBLE FOR A DELAY in the reporting of unemployment numbers, as THE ANTI-MUSLIM FILM WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MASSACRE IN BENGHAZI!!!

IF they delay the numbers, IT WILL BE BECAUSE THEY CANNOT SPIN THEM TO BENEFIT OBAMA.  Period.

I cannot find ONE instance where this reporting HAS EVER BEEN DELAYED.  IF they delay the reporting of these numbers, the people responsible will NEED TO BE FIRED AT A MINIMUM.  I’m not joking when I say these people should be tried for TREASON!!!

 

 

Now I want to highlight what I said last December:

Now for some cynicism.  I keep hearing the Democrats argue that they “want” an extension of the “extended unemployment benefits” and saying that the Republicans are fighting to let them expire unless we can “tax the rich more”.  Here is my view of the situation.  The Republicans are in a no-win situation, because the Democrats are going to let them expire, no matter what the Republicans offer.  Here is why.  IF the benefits expire, then everyone that is unemployed for more 9 months (I believe this is what the law will revert to, if I am incorrect please leave a comment), instead of the current temporary 99 weeks (which is just short of 2 years) will NO LONGER BE COUNTED IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.  IF this happens, the Unemployment Rate will have a sudden drop from the current 9+% rate.  This will make the numbers “look” like they improved, so President Obama can claim to be improving the economy.  He will get on TV everyday and say that he brought the unemployment rate down from 9+% (it was over 9% thanks to President Bush and the Republicans) to x%, and that is why he ”deserves” to remain President.  It would have come down sooner except the Republicans in Congress stopped him from helping out sooner.”

The question is: Will the “unemployment rate” dip below 8%??  If it does, this is ALL you will see on any television.

The weekly Unemployment Rate, and MISINFORMATION….

August 23, 2012

When are “REPORTERS” going to learn about that, which they report on??

Today is the date for another propaganda piece report from the Bureau of Labor “Statistics”, and I just can’t stand it sometimes.  Today we get the piece as distributed by REUTERS, a supposed intelligent reporting agency, through CNBC, a BUSINESS reporting company!!!  It is hard for me to believe that these people are COMPLETE MORONS, but my only other option is that they are doing this on purpose which makes them a part of the government propaganda machine.  There are NO other options.  AND, this is where most people get their information. SO SAD. 

What is the problem you ask?  Here is the lead paragraph:

“The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly rose last week, while a separate reading on U.S. manufacturing activity showed a slight improvement in August.”

Unexpectedly??  Seriously??  Where do these people live??  What are they looking at??  Where do they get their information??  Do they not look around??  Have they tried to get a job recently??  I have!!

Let me just provide a short list to the impediments to hiring ANYONE, if you are a business or thinking of starting a business:

     1.     The tax cliff that, as of now, is coming in 4 short months.  At this point NO ONE, including the President, the possible new President, the Congress nor the Senate KNOWS how this WILL BE resolved.  NO ONE!!  People have ideas.  But which ones will be attempted, is a guess, at this point.

     2.     A presidential election, that will decide, maybe, how the tax cliff will be dealt with.  I say maybe, because even after the election, it may NOT be dealt with until after the fact.

     3.    ALL of the forms, fees, permits, requirements, regulations that are required to do ANYTHING.

     4.     The issues in Europe.  (They WILL affect the USA, whether you want to believe it or not)

     5.     The issues in the Middle East.  (Ditto)

     6.     Inflation, just because the “government propaganda machine” says there is no inflation, does not make it so.  The price of the things that Americans use every day (gas, food, housing, repairs, etc.) are going UP.  In most cases, much faster than the “government” says!  I fear that the Drought of 2012 is going to accelerate these increases.

     7.     No one is buying ANYTHING EXTRA.  America is in a just hang on mindset right now.

I could go on.  But, you should get the picture.  I understand that there are always unknowns when starting a business, or hiring someone new, but IMHO, todays unknowns ONLY have NEGATIVES associated with them.  In other words, when the problem is solved, things are still going to be BAD or things are going to be WORSE.  Until people are confident that things could be getting better, they will not BUY ANYTHING EXTRA.

Then I get to a point in the article that gives me hope that they might tell the truth, IF they would only INVESTIGATE the FACTS:

“A total of 5.59 million Americans were receiving unemployment benefits under all programs in the week ended Aug. 4, down 109,812 from the prior week.”

WHY is it “DOWN 109,812 from the prior week”??  Is it because they were hired??  Unfortunately the answer to that question is NO!!!  In the last year the government “statisticians” have removed 1.3 MILLION people from the total!!  With 109,812 in the last week alone.  These people have reached the end of their unemployment benefits, so they are no longer counted.  This has ARTIFICIALLY PUSHED THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE LOWER!!  The actual unemployment rate is above 10%.  The number of people being removed from the count is ACCELERATING.

Now I want to highlight what I said last December:

Now for some cynicism.  I keep hearing the Democrats argue that they “want” an extension of the “extended unemployment benefits” and saying that the Republicans are fighting to let them expire unless we can “tax the rich more”.  Here is my view of the situation.  The Republicans are in a no-win situation, because the Democrats are going to let them expire, no matter what the Republicans offer.  Here is why.  IF the benefits expire, then everyone that is unemployed for more 9 months (I believe this is what the law will revert to, if I am incorrect please leave a comment), instead of the current temporary 99 weeks (which is just short of 2 years) will NO LONGER BE COUNTED IN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.  IF this happens, the Unemployment Rate will have a sudden drop from the current 9+% rate.  This will make the numbers “look” like they improved, so President Obama can claim to be improving the economy.  He will get on TV everyday and say that he brought the unemployment rate down from 9+% (it was over 9% thanks to President Bush and the Republicans) to x%, and that is why he ”deserves” to remain President.  It would have come down sooner except the Republicans in Congress stopped him from helping out sooner.”

The question is: Will the “unemployment rate” dip below 8%??  If it does, this is ALL you will see on any television.

Initial Claims for Unemployment may or MAY NOT be Improving, Take 2…

January 26, 2012

Last week I said:

“This week I will wager that with another UPWARD revision, the claims will be at least 355,000 this week.”

and this week the news is….(from CNBC):

“The number of first-time unemployment applications rose 21,000 last week, the Labor Department said.”

and

“The number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a seasonally adjusted 377,000….”

So lets see, 377,000 – 21,000 = 356,000.  I missed on my estimate by 1,000, and AGAIN my estimate is closer to reality, by a FACTOR, than the Government Propagandists!!!  Also, please note that the revision of the previous weeks number was AGAIN AN UPWARD REVISION.  So, they are still trying to pain a more rosy picture than actually exists in the real world!!

This week I will wager that the number is revised UPWARD again to at least 380,000.  Any takers?

Something else I would like to discuss in the CNBC article:

“Applications have trended down over the past few months. The four week average has declined to 377,500. When applications fall consistently below 375,000, it tends to signal that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.”

Please remember that CNBC was more than willing to point out that “things were getting better” on such flimsy evidence as:

“When applications drop below 375,000 — consistently — that generally signals hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate. Prior to last week’s spike, applications had been below 375,000 for three of the past four weeks.”

See how optimistic that is?  However, I seem to have missed ANY MENTION of the fact that for “three of the past four weeks” applications have been ABOVE 375,000, signaling the fact that the unemployment rate is NOT GOING TO IMPROVE!!!

Things that make you go, HMMMMM?

Unemployment Claims…..again…..

September 30, 2011

Another week, another UPWARD revision (which is NEGATIVE) from the “government propagandists statisticians”.

From CNBC:

“Weekly claims slipped below the psychologically important 400,000 mark, falling 37,000 to 391,000..”

Remember last week:

Applications for unemployment benefits dropped to 423,000 in the week ending Sept.17 from an upwardly revised 432,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said on Thursday.”

See that, they said the number was 423,000 last week, but really it was 428,000 (391,000+37,000).

And the four week moving average is (still from CNBC):

“The four-week average, a less volatile measure, fell to 417,000, the first drop in six weeks.”

Last week I was willing to make the following wager

“I will wager that next week, this weeks number will be closer to 427,000 than 423,000.”

I was off, but it was much LESS than the Government Propagandists, by 1,000 jobs!!!

I will make the following wager:  I say that this weeks number is 396,000 NOT 391,000.  Any takers??  I guess we will see next week.

Unemployment claims (continued)….

September 2, 2011

Another week, another Initial Claims for Unemployment report.  And just like clock work, another UPWARD revision, which is NEGATIVE!!!  You can read my previous posts here, here, here, here and here.

Here is the article from FoxNews, the following is a quote:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications fell 12,000 to a seasonally adjusted 409,000 last week, the first decline in three weeks.”

Please notice that applications fell 12,000.  If you have not read my previous posts, my complaints are that the media is attempting to make the numbers seem better than they are.  Last week the Initial Claims number was:

“The Labor Department says weekly applications rose 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 417,000, the highest level in five weeks.”

First, notice that last week the number was 417,000.  That is a bad number, correct?  But is it better than say, oh I don’t know, 421,000?  You know, the ACTUAL number!!  Because that is what the number was revised to this week, and this pattern has continued for as long as I have noticed, and this is 6 weeks for which I have linked.

Second, if we keep the original number, then claims would have ONLY dropped 8,000, NOT 12,000.  You see, by purposely under reporting the number EVERY week, they are able to imply that the initial claims are smaller than they actually are, while at the same time implying that the number is getting smaller faster (or growing slower) than it actual is.

Finally I have my favorite quote:

“Fewer people applied for unemployment benefits last week, a sign that the job market may be improving slightly.”

You see, it is “improving”… and yet when it is DEFINITELY getting worse, say the last three weeks, there was NO INDICATION that the employment picture was deteriorating!!

For anyone that has not been paying attention, historically, if the Initial Claims for unemployment is NOT LESS THAN 200,000, then the employment situation is NOT GETTING BETTER!!!  Said another way, the US economy, in good times, has been able to produce more than enough jobs, on a weekly basis, to absorb 200,000 of new claims and all of the new entrants to the jobs picture (this number includes people that are now 18, immigrants, new graduates, a house wife that decides she wants a job, etc.).  The US economy IS UNABLE to produce more jobs than that for a sustained period.

Also, now the media is NOT reporting the four week moving average.  Last week, with the moving average at 407,500,  I said:

“I will wager that the moving average RISES next week as well.”

Well, it did.  Here is a quote from the government:

“The 4-week moving average was 410,250, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average of 408,500”

Please notice that this 4-week moving average number is ALSO being revised UPWARD!!  It was revised from 407,500 to 408,500, before the new average is calculated at 410,250.  So here is ANOTHER statistic that is not being ACCURATELY reported by the government the first time.

I will still wager that this weeks number gets revised UPWARD next week.  Any takers???